OVC Tournament Projections

[ST_Lawson]

Because I was curious, I used Massey to project the remaining OVC games for all teams and figured out what the final standings should be assuming no upsets.

1. UT Martin - 14-4 - 2-1 vs other two
2. Little Rock - 14-4 - 2-2 vs other two
3. Morehead State - 14-4 - 1-2 vs other two
4. Western Illinois - 13-5
5. Tennessee State - 10-8
6. SIUE - 9-9
7. EIU - 8-10
8. USI - 5-13 - because of 1-1 against Morehead State
9. TTU - 5-13 - because 0-2 against Morehead State
10. SEMO - 3-15
11. Lindenwood - 2-16

UT Martin, Little Rock, and Morehead State would all end up 14-4 in the OVC. Tiebreaker is record against the other teams with the same record, with UT Martin going 2-1 against them, Little Rock at 2-2, and Morehead State at 1-2. Also, Southern Indiana and Tennessee Tech would both be 5-13, because they split 1-1 against each other, it starts at the top and works down...record against UT Martin, then Little Rock, then Morehead State. Because Southern Indiana knocked off Morehead State last Tuesday, and TTU would be 0-2 against MSU, USI gets the #8 spot. If all that happens, then here's the bracket:

Wednesday
6:30 PM - Game 1 - #5 Tennessee State vs #8 Southern Indiana
9:00 PM - Game 2 - #6 SIU Edwardsville vs #7 Eastern Illinois

Thursday
6:30 PM - Game 3 - Game 1 Winner vs #4 Western Illinois
9:00 PM - Game 4 - Game 2 Winner vs #3 Morehead State

Friday
6:30 PM - Game 3 Winner vs #1 UT Martin
9:00 PM - Game 4 Winner vs #2 Little Rock

Theoretically, we could finish anywhere from the #1 seed (if we win both our games and somehow all of the top three teams lose their two remaining games) down to the #6 seed if we lose both our games, TN State and SIUE with both their games, and certain tiebreaker scenarios don't go our way (would depend on the final ranking of the top three teams). Obviously the higher seed, the better, but the #4 seed is decent if we get to the Friday game, taking on a UT Martin team that we split with in the regular season.

[ST_Lawson]

For reference, here are the remaining games this next week (with current conference records). All games are on ESPN+ unless otherwise noted.

Tuesday 2/27
7:30 PM - SIUE (9-7) at EIU (7-9)

Thursday 2/29
6:30 PM - SEMO (3-13) at Morehead State (12-4)
7:30 PM - EIU (7-9) at WIU (11-5)
7:30 PM - TN Tech (5-11) at UT Martin (12-4)
7:30 PM - Lindenwood (2-14) at Southern Indiana (5-11)
8:00 PM - TN State (10-6) at Little Rock (12-4) (this game will also be on ESPNU)

Saturday 3/2
2:30 PM - Lindenwood (2-14) at Morehead State (12-4)
3:00 PM - TN Tech (5-11) at Little Rock (12-4)
3:30 PM - SIUE (9-7) at WIU (11-5)
3:30 PM - TN State (10-6) at UT Martin (12-4)
7:30 PM - SEMO (3-13) at Southern Indiana (5-11)
 

[sealhall74]

It will be interesting to see how the fan attendance shapes up for each school this year  No more Murray St or Belmont around.  I am sure they travelled pretty good given their successes in getting to the Big Dance.  My two cents but if Southern Indiana shows up with 3K+ fans, they might be tough to beat.  They are leading the league in attendance this year (~2200) with Morehead St a close second.
 
 
 

[ST_Lawson]

Update after Tuesday and Thursday games...

Current OVC standings:
Morehead State - 13-4
UT Martin - 13-4
Little Rock - 13-4
Western Illinois - 12-5
Tennessee State - 10-7
SIU Edwardsville - 9-8
Eastern Illinois - 8-10
Tennessee Tech - 5-12
Southern Indiana - 5-12
Lindenwood - 3-14
Southeast Missouri State - 3-14

Currently, all of the top 4 are projected to win their games on Saturday, EIU has finished their regular season, and most of the remaining teams are projected to lose with the excpetion of Southern Indiana, who plays SEMO. Projected bracket is currently the same as was listed above.

We are currently locked into at least the #4 seed since #5 Tennessee State is 2 games behind us. Theoretically, if we win Saturday, and some (or all) of the top 3 teams lose, we would end up with the same conference record as them, however, I believe that all three teams ahead of us would win the tiebreaker scenarios against us, so I don't think we can move up in the seeding. I'm about 99% sure we're the #4 seed.

Saturdays games (listed with conference records and chance of win) are...
2:30 PM - Lindenwood (3-14) at Morehead State (13-4) - MSU win 94%
3 PM - Tennessee Tech (5-12) at Little Rock (13-4) - UALR win 76%
3:30 PM - SIU Edwardsville (9-8) at Western Illinois (12-5) - WIU win 63%
3:30 PM - Tennessee State (10-7) at UT Martin (13-4) - UTM win 64%
7:30 PM - Southeast Missouri State (3-14) at Southern Indiana (5-12) - USI win 63%

Outside of our own game, we probably want to root for USI to lose and TN Tech to win on Saturday. That would drop USI out of the tournament. If USI is the #8, they probably play #5 TN State, with us playing the winner. We split with TN State and swept USI in the regular season, but USI would be likely to have a very large crowd since it's practically a "home game" for them. They fall out, #8 is TN Tech, who we played once and beat.