R U Ready For Some PickEm?

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sealhall74
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Come this fall, I hope to have a totally statistic-based synaptic neural network embedded in the application. It will get smarter as the season progresses as we all should.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
rocki
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So, if we pick SDSU to beat ISUr, do we get an automatic plus one? (I just noticed yesterday that the game was still listed and didn't know if my picks would be booted if I left it blank. :lol: )
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ST_Lawson
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Also, the Lafayette vs Fordham game that is listed is not what is going on this weekend.
Because of rescheduling and postponements, this weekend Lafayette is playing Bucknell and Fordham is playing Holy Cross.
https://fordhamsports.com/news/2021/3/2 ... urday.aspx
https://www.mcall.com/sports/college/mc ... story.html
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
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sealhall74
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ST_Lawson wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:03 am Also, the Lafayette vs Fordham game that is listed is not what is going on this weekend.
Because of rescheduling and postponements, this weekend Lafayette is playing Bucknell and Fordham is playing Holy Cross.
https://fordhamsports.com/news/2021/3/2 ... urday.aspx
https://www.mcall.com/sports/college/mc ... story.html
Thanks for update. Downside of relying on NCAA for my schedule. Hard time keeping up with all the changes. We will go with just the 6 games (hopefully) that remain to earn points.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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sealhall74
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I am getting some encouraging results with the synaptic neural network software (https://caza.la/synaptic/#/)

I have been using mvfc statistics from back in the years 2016 to 2019 to predict the outcomes of the games during those seasons.
So far, my training data has been minimal, just the team averages for the offense, defense, special teams, and other stat categories similar to the data in the Pickem StatRank tables here -> http://ip-198-12-248-7.ip.secureserver. ... c/statRank
Here are the results from a sample run:

{
'2016': { wins: 33, losses: 7, marginDiff: 297, mDAve: '7.42' },
'2017': { wins: 33, losses: 7, marginDiff: 386, mDAve: '9.65' },
'2018': { wins: 30, losses: 10, marginDiff: 303, mDAve: '7.58' },
'2019': { wins: 35, losses: 5, marginDiff: 356, mDAve: '8.90' }
}

Obviously, some stats are more important than others in determing the outcome of a game. What this neural net software does is come up with the best weights to use for each stat in order to produce the desired result. The goal is to maximize the wins while minimizing the mdAve which is basically the difference between the predicted point spread and the actual game point spread. Results will hopefully get even better when I add in detailed stats for the categories but we shall see. These mdAve are quite a bit better than the AMDs (Average Margin Diffs) I am seeing from players in the Pickem game. This is incredibly powerful stuff and comes into play presently in things like self-driving vehicles, automated facial recognition, sales forecasting, marketing strategies, and many other things.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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sealhall74
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I am interested in what you guys that have played the pickem game this year and in the past think about the bonus games like Pick Tac Toe, Survivor, etc. Do you miss them at all? Any ideas on how to improve them? With the prior Google framework, I was a bit constrained with what I could do with them when it came to gameboard design. No limits with the new framework - the sky is the limit.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
wiu712
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I will be the first to comment: I liked this past spring season with just picking the winners of the football games.
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sealhall74
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I have decided to make the Bonus Games like Survivor an "OPT IN" feature for the upcoming fall season. More coding is more fun than fence building but don't tell my wife that. ;)
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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sealhall74
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I feel so good about the upcoming season that I am stealing just a few words from the one and only Brent Mussburger:

"You are looking live" at the 2021 fall season version of the MVFC Pickem game if you click on the link below:

http://ip-198-12-248-7.ip.secureserver.net:3000/mvfc

The "MVFC Pickem" link at the top of the page also works good as Purple and Gold.

If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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sealhall74
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GoDaddy pulled a switcheroo on me and changed the way they handle host names.  
The URL to get to the MVFC Pickem App is now this:

http://7.248.12.198.host.secureserver.net:3000/mvfc

ST, could you please change the link at the top of the page on this site.

Thanks
 
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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