9/24/22 - vs Northern Iowa

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ST_Lawson
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ImageVSImage

Youth Sports Day | Wear White

Game Date/Time:
Saturday, September 24 at 3 PM
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb
Media: ESPN+, Leatherneck Sports Network Radio
Live Stats: https://goleathernecks.com/sidearmstats ... ll/summary
Game Notes and Info: Western Illinois | Northern Iowa (not posted yet)

Well, not the record we were hoping for at this point in time, but it is what it is, and it's time to get into MVFC games. Up first is Northern Iowa, coming to Hanson Field this Saturday.
Like our Leathernecks, the Panthers are 0-3 on the season. They started off with a 48-17 defeat at Air Force (currently 2-1), followed up with an early conference loss at North Dakota (2-1) to the tune of 29-27, and then last week, a 37-21 loss to Sacramento State (2-0 and currently ranked in the top 10 of the FCS).

Despite the similar records, UNI has advantages over us in most statistical categories. If you like to dig into the numbers, you can check that out here.

History
WIU and UNI have faced off 50 times in our histories, going back to 1967. The Panthers hold a 34-16 series lead and have won the last 3 games against us.

Rankings
Sagarin Ratings (includes all 261 DI teams): WIU is #206, UNI is #144
Massey Composite: WIU is #91, UNI is #39
Massey Ratings gives us a 26% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 31-20 for Northern Iowa: https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=935075331

Overall, they have an advantage, but we do still have a shot at winning. This isn't likely to be a blowout like Minnesota or North Dakota State. I can't say I have a lot of confidence in our team based on what I saw last weekend, but hopefully they can surprise me.
 
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rocki
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I don't believe we will win this one. Brutal honesty, I'm doubting if we win anything this year since we're into the gauntlet of MVFC games now. My hopes lie in seeing improvement (particularly in the offense and the offensive line) in the team. We started behind the 8-ball this year, and while I have faith in the coaches and the players, there's just an awful lot of new blood in the program and that takes time to come together. Seeing steady improvement - with or without wins - is what I'm looking for now.
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rocki wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:11 pm I don't believe we will win this one. Brutal honesty, I'm doubting if we win anything this year since we're into the gauntlet of MVFC games now.
 
I'm still holding out hope for Indiana State (and an outside chance at Illinois State and Youngstown State), but it's looking pretty rough.
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rocki
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ST_Lawson wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:18 pm
rocki wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:11 pm I don't believe we will win this one. Brutal honesty, I'm doubting if we win anything this year since we're into the gauntlet of MVFC games now.

 
I'm still holding out hope for Indiana State (and an outside chance at Illinois State and Youngstown State), but it's looking pretty rough.

 
OK. I'll be the pessimist and be pleasantly surprised if they turn out to be wins.  :)
 
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Coach Hendrickson out there getting students to come to the game...one by one...

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sealhall74
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ST_Lawson wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:56 am Coach Hendrickson out there getting students to come to the game...one by one...





 
Now, if the AD would round up all the ones still in QLot 20 minutes before game starts to get them in their seats at kickoff.

I only have one prediction for this game.  If we win (and I think we have a reasonable chance, see stats below), the 'Fire Farley' thread on their fan board will be trending about 6 weeks sooner than normal.

My stats ranker has them ranked last in defense in conference.  We are one up on them there and in the combined ranking they are not that far ahead of us. But take the stats with a grain of salt at this point because of the vast variability in quality of opposition in the first 3 games of season.

Ope (a midwest thing right?),  My pasted html does not look good here even though it did in the editor.  I will try to clean up a bit

COMBINEDRANKTEAMAVG
1North Dakota St. 0.69
2Illinois St. 0.59
3South Dakota St 0.58
4Youngstown St. 0.51
5Missouri St. 0.49
5South Dakota 0.49
7North Dakota 0.46
8Southern Ill. 0.43
9UNI 0.41
10Indiana St. 0.38
11Western Ill. 0.31

DEFENSE
TEAM AVG 3Dn Conv4Dn ConvDef TDsFirst DownPass IntPass Yd AllowRed Zone DefRush DefScore DefPass EfficDef SackDef TFLsTotal Def
Illinois St. 0.720.640.3110.680.830.760.280.770.740.8210.640.87
Youngstown St.0.660.370.9400.5510.350.560.930.80.680.6710.72
North Dakota St. 0.650.520.6310.650.17100.660.970.890.50.460.94
South Dakota St.0.600.460.83010.330.670.451110.0901
South Dakota 0.490.470.9400.430.170.4710.40.570.50.580.460.34
Indiana St.0.440.2210.50.180.170.370.170.790.040.340.750.590.61
Missouri St. 0.4210.4700.30.330.160.560.580.530.330.50.360.28
North Dakota 0.31000.50.20.330.240.640.560.430.260.50.110.32
Southern Ill. 0.250.480.1600.40.17000.77000.50.410.33
Western Ill. 0.23 0.720.83000.170.130.450.270.020.2800.110
UNI 0.12 0.05000.2500.58000.110.150.170.180.08
 
 
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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ST_Lawson
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sealhall74
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If you were a coach, how would deal with musical chair QB situation?  At what point during the week do you tell them who is starting, who is next in, etc?
I would think the decision would be made very early in the week so most of the reps are with the starting QB.  Or maybe its later depending on who shows the hotter hand as the week progresses.  Tough situation for all parties concerned, even the linemen who must get accustomed to cadence call differences. 

I would love to see some creativity in the play calls.  Maybe have 2 QBs in, handoff or lateral to one and then have him toss up a pass.
 
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
leatherneckcountry
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I'm in the minority but I think we have a very good chance to win this game UNI has been anything but impressive. my guess is WIU 21 UNI 17
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