10/15/22 - at Southern Illinois

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ST_Lawson
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Game Date/Time: Saturday, October 15 at 2 PM
Location: Saluki Stadium, Carbondale, IL
Media: ESPN+, Leatherneck Sports Network Radio
Live Stats: https://siusalukis.com/sidearmstats/football/media
Game Notes and Info: Western Illinois | Southern Illinois

SIU is sitting at 4-2 so far this season, 3-0 in the MVFC. They started off the season with an unexpected blowout at Incarnate Word (64-29) then a close loss to rival Southeast Missouri State (34-31). Since that point though, they have turned things around, winning 4 straight including their game at Big 10 Northwestern (31-24), North Dakota (34-14), Illinois State (19-14), and Missouri State (38-21). This weekend will be Homecoming for the Salukis and will feature a pregame flyover by the USAF A-10 Thunderbolts.

Here's the statistical comparison between the two teams. SIU has the advantage in most categories, although we're both pretty weak defensively against the pass (which is just about the only offense we seem to be able to get going most of the time). SIU has the 8th best run defense in the FCS, so we're going to have a pretty hard time on the ground most likely. Last week, RB Javon Williams Jr. was named the MVFC offensive player of the week after scoring 2 TDs and picking up 121 total yards of offense in their win over MSU.

History
The Leathernecks and Salukis have played 66 times going back to 1933 with WIU holding a 37-25-4 series lead. WIU had a long winning streak against SIU, winning every game from 1984 to 2001 before SIU flipped things and won the next 9 straight. It's been a bit more "even" over the last decade, with WIU winning 4 out of the last 10 matchups. Last year's game was a 31-30 OT loss for the Leathernecks, where WIU went for a 2-pt conversion after a TD in OT but failed to convert.

Rankings
Southern Illinois is #16 in the current STATS Perform FCS Top 25 Poll and the AnyGivenSaturday Top 25 Poll
Sagarin Ratings (includes all 261 DI teams): WIU is #200, SIU is #112
Massey Composite: WIU is #103, SIU is #14
Massey Ratings gives us an 16% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 38-19 for SIU. I think there are a couple of games left this year where we'll have a solid chance of snagging a win. I don't think this is one of them.
 
 
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wiu712
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Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:05 pm

Leathernecks use bye week to re-charge, re-group heading into season’s second half.
From Prairie State Pigskin:
https://prairiestatepigskin.com/2022/10 ... of-season/
 
 
 
 
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sealhall74
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Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:18 pm
Location: Wherever, Windblows

Can we hang with these guys on their homecoming?  I think we can, but we will need to cash in on each and every turnover we can come up with.  Get up early and they could start to play a bit tight in front of all the alums.  The NeuralNet seems to agree with me.  

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { team: 'Western Ill.', score: 28.881 },
  team2: { team: 'Southern Ill.', score: 31.165 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
rocki
Posts: 1303
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:08 pm

Not likely, but I sure would like to see our first "W" of the season. At the very least, a better product from our offense.
WIU2DC
Posts: 622
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:31 pm

So we had two weeks to prepare for SIU and we start a different QB? Is Bruno hurt?


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sealhall74
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Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:18 pm
Location: Wherever, Windblows

We have shot ourself in the foot so many times this year with untimely penalties.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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letsgonecks
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Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:19 am

This squad has 0 confidence and everything is rushed and we look terrible.

SIU is setup and running an obvious double pass with Williams and Ross on the back end doesn't see the one guy going his way.  Not good.

Ogala misses a wide open McKinney on a post with no pressure.  An average QB throws a catchable ball and he walks in.

We run a reverse and Armstrong who had 135 carries for Notre Dame isnt cabable of planting his foot and trying make a guy miss an arm tackle.  Instead he studders and falls down.  Any other team/player makes the cut and has 1 dude to beat......not WIU.

We weren't going to win, but we are super bad.
Think Purple...lets think Gold as in Championships!!!
MB1965
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:59 am

These kids are not that bad. The head coach has lost his team. They are walking off the field screaming their frustration. The confidence lost starts at the top.
wiu712
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Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:05 pm

SIU-Carbondale is ahead at halftime 23-7.

Western has 0 Yards Rushing on 11 attempts.

Henry Ogala is 7 of 16 in Passing for 97.5 yards.
 
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sealhall74
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I guess I am just old school.  When you are not blessed with great strength up front or great speed in the backfield, you must rely on deception.  I formation does not tip the defense on going left or right.  A lead FB blocker adds to the strength of line.  TB can bust it right or left off his butt.  The thing I hate most about running from the pistol is that the RB cannot move toward the line until the QB gives him the ball.  If back is behind QB in pistol he has a bunch of yards to go to even get to line of scrimmage.  I formation with QB behind center lets all RBs move forward at snap of ball.
 
 
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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