10/22/22 - vs Youngstown State (Homecoming)

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ST_Lawson
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Game Date/Time: Saturday, October 22 at 3 PM
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Media: ESPN+, Leatherneck Sports Network Radio
Live Stats: https://goleathernecks.com/sidearmstats ... ll/summary
Game Notes and Info: Western Illinois | Youngstown State

YSU is 3-3 this season, with a 1-2 conference record. They kicked things off with a 31-14 win over Duquesne (currently 1-5), followed up with a 49-16 win over Dayton (currently 4-2). Their first road contest was an FBS game against then #9 Kentucky (currently 5-2 and #19) where they were shut out 31-0. Heading into conference season, they traveled to NDSU and fell 27-14, then went back to eastern Ohio to host North Dakota (a 35-30 loss for the Penguins) and Indiana State (a 48-42 win).

Here's the statistical comparison between the two teams. One of the fewest areas where we have an advantage is in passing offense. Neither of us are great, but WIU has been putting up better numbers than YSU, although part of that is probably because they have a much more run-oriented offense, ranking 16th in the FCS in that stat category. They're also very good at holding on to the ball, ranking 11th in the FCS in turnovers lost and 5th in passes that have been intercepted. RB Jaleel McLaughlin is #2 in the FCS in rushing yards this season, averaging 142.7 per game, so we're going to need our run defense to step up this weekend.

History

The Leathernecks and Penguins have played 34 times going back to 1969, with YSU holding a 20-14 series lead. The last 6 meetings going back to 2013 have been back and forth, with WIU winning 3 times (2014, 2018, and 2021), and YSU winning 3 times (2013, 2015, and 2019). Last year's matchup was a 38-35 win over YSU where the Penguins rolled up a 35-7 lead in the first half, but a TD in the final seconds of the first half was the start of a comeback that would extend through the entire second half. A 35-35 tie in the 4th quarter was broken by a 34-yard FG by WIU's Mason Laramie in the final seconds of the game to win by 3.

Rankings

Sagarin Ratings (includes all 261 DI teams): WIU is #201, YSU is #153
Massey Composite: WIU is #101, YSU is #39
Massey Ratings gives us a 33% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 31-24 for YSU. Of the remaining games on the schedule, this and Indiana State are the only two where we have a greater than 30% chance of a win (INSU is currently 46% chance for us), so hopefully we can pull one out for the homecoming crowd.
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sealhall74
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I have not given my Neural Network (NN) an official name yet (open to suggestions, is Carnac the Magnificent available?), but this week it says:

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { team: 'Youngstown St.', score: 24.469 },
  team2: { team: 'Western Ill.', score: 15.404 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

Fingers crossed our 15 points are not from 5 FGs within the Red Zone.  For better or worse, as they say, I will not be in attendance.  My wife convinced me that a romantic dinner (she wont tell me where yet) and a Straight No Chaser accapella show at the Adler is a better use of our time.

Come on guys, lets prove NN and her wrong this week.  Make that FG a walkoff winner.  Go Necks!

My 2 cents, but we need Homecoming shows like this just like in the old days:


 
 
 
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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letsgonecks
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Does not look promising.  They have the best RB in the conference and have been effective passing the ball as well.  They score a bunch and we score very little.

Some comparisons that don't bode well for WIU.  They have only thrown 2 picks to 10 TD's this year and we only have 2 picks as a team.  Ross has both of them.

Our RB's have a combined net rushing total of 217.  Mclaughlin has games of 200 and 203 rushing.  His lowest output of 36 against current FBS 19th ranked Kentucky is tied with our RB season high that Reed had against UNI.  23 of those came on back to back carries on our first drive and believe one was a jet sweep.

Is Davenport injured or did he get in trouble and bench forever.  He did come out looking bad when starting against SUU and then had the bad fumble when he came in for 1 play inside the 5, but nothing since.  Doesn't make sense as he looked a little better than Ogala and is a better runner.  We have to go with Bruno or Davenport.  I also think we should try something new on offense and see what a more traditional scheme can do.  Under center, fullback, man blocking and a TE.  Lets go big at TE and start Selle and have our big WR's Brantley and Jafar split.  Might not work, but not a crazy complex implementation and we could work in play action they might bite on and run some bootlegs.  Before I was hoping more jet sweeps and Qb keepers, like a read option type offense, but no go and we've stuck with what doesn't work.........handing the ball off 5 yards behind the line to a flat footed running back and no read to hold the edge or a passing game down the seem or over the middle to hold the backers.

If we make some plays and get a few bounces to go our way, we do have a chance, but wouldn't put a ton of money down.
 
Think Purple...lets think Gold as in Championships!!!
jtrinaldi
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Hope they start playing the freshman next week who can play 4 and come back next year as a redshirt Freshman
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sealhall74
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jtrinaldi wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:43 am Hope they start playing the freshman next week who can play 4 and come back next year as a redshirt Freshman

 
Amen to that.  My football career was limited to JH and Freshman as I was skinny AF growing up and decided basketball and baseball were better bets after that.  But one of my fondest memories was in JH when we had a Saturday morning pre-season practice and the coach made a big deal about having a game-like scrimmage between the supposed first team players and the "others" like myself.  I played QB for the others and we came out of the first half leading the first teamers by a small margin IIRC.  At half time, the coach lit into the first teamers for getting out-played in the first half.  Things did turn around in the second half as you can imagine.  But the point is that sometimes kids can just show up and prove they belong too and really surprise some people, including themselves.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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jtrinaldi wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:43 am Hope they start playing the freshman next week who can play 4 and come back next year as a redshirt Freshman

 
From the reports, this is not the direction they are going, even including some of the freshmen who had been dressing.
rocki
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Guest wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:57 pm
jtrinaldi wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:43 am Hope they start playing the freshman next week who can play 4 and come back next year as a redshirt Freshman


 
From the reports, this is not the direction they are going, even including some of the freshmen who had been dressing.

 
Is there a particular reason for this?
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rocki wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 12:31 pm
Guest wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:57 pm
jtrinaldi wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:43 am Hope they start playing the freshman next week who can play 4 and come back next year as a redshirt Freshman



 
From the reports, this is not the direction they are going, even including some of the freshmen who had been dressing.


 
Is there a particular reason for this?

 
I suspect they are trying to ensure they don't cause the "non-freshmen" to transfer out because they lost their time to to freshmen. The players currently receiving time are the ones who have film to use in the transfer portal. That portal drives a lot of decisions.
WIU2DC
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Well Taj Sanders got a TD today. So looks like they’re playing some of the freshman.

Edit: if the website is right that’s his second catch of the season for a TD.

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leatherneckcountry
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WIU2DC wrote: Sat Oct 22, 2022 3:46 pm Well Taj Sanders got a TD today. So looks like they’re playing some of the freshman.


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He’s been playing 
 
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