10/29/22 - at Missouri State

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ST_Lawson
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Game Date/Time: Saturday, October 29 at 2 PM
Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO
Media: ESPN+, Leatherneck Sports Network Radio
Live Stats: https://missouristatebears.com/sidearms ... ll/summary
Game Notes and Info: Western Illinois | Missouri State

Missouri State started off the season picked to finish 3rd in the MVFC and in just about everyone's preseason Top 10. They started the season looking worthy of every bit of that, beating Central Arkansas (27-14) and then #14 UT-Martin in a rematch of last year's playoff game (35-30). They followed that up with a close game with then FBS #10 Arkansas (38-27). Since then, however, things have taken a distinct downturn, losing to then #2 South Dakota STate (28-14), at North Dakota (48-31), against then #17 Southern Illinois (38-21), and at Northern Iowa (41-20) to drop them to a 2-5 overall record and 0-4 in the MVFC.

Here's the statistical comparison between the two teams. Like most matchups this season, MSU is ahead of us in most statistical categories. The few areas where we have the advantage include our pass defense, where we're 100th in the FCS (out of 123), but MSU is 118th, giving up just under 300 passing yards per game. We are also 81st in sacks allowed, whereas MSU is 122nd. They also don't have a great run game (113th vs our 118th), so it seems like they may be having similar O-line issues to what we had been having. A couple of really bright spots for us statistically include our punt return defense, where we are #2 in all the FCS giving up -1.45 yards per punt, and penalty yards, where we actually lead the FCS with 31.29 penalty yards per game (MSU is 88th in that category).

History

The Leathernecks and Bears have faced off 38 times going back to 1981. MSU currently leads the series (but it's close), 19-18-1. In the last 10 meetings, we lost 5 in a row (from 2009-2013), then won 3 in a row (16, 17, 18), but we've lost the last two matchups...37-31 in 3 OTs in 2019, then 30-24 in spring of 2021. We did not play Missouri State in the fall 2021 season.

Rankings

Sagarin Ratings (includes all 261 DI teams): WIU is #199, MSU is #157
Massey Composite: WIU is #98, MSU is #45
Massey Ratings gives us a 22% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 35-21 for MSU.
 
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sealhall74
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Assuming our 3? QBs are all healthy, I would try something a little different this week.  Rotate them in and out by bringing the play in, calling it in the huddle, and executing it to perfection.  I hate to watch all the players lined up ready to snap the ball and then looking toward sideline as the play is adjusted from the press box based on defensive alignment and somehow signalled in.  Know WTF you are going to do early based on down and distance, tell everyone about it in the huddle, and then do it.  Not rocket science.  

My Neural Network says this one is going to a barn-burner:

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { team: 'Western Ill.', score: 25.24 },
  team2: { team: 'Missouri St.', score: 26.285 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}




 
 
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
rocki
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Following up on seal's post - do we have an injury report? I know last week they said JJ Ross was out (and the kid replacing him did a good job, I think), but I was kinda wondering about Davenport. We've seen both Ogala and Bruno, but not Davenport for a couple of games. I was just curios as to who all is out with injury.
Leatherneck57
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rocki wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 4:37 pm Following up on seal's post - do we have an injury report? I know last week they said JJ Ross was out (and the kid replacing him did a good job, I think), but I was kinda wondering about Davenport. We've seen both Ogala and Bruno, but not Davenport for a couple of games. I was just curios as to who all is out with injury.

 
JJ Ross is out for the season with a broken hand.  He broke it at SIU.  We are missing 4 offensive guards.  I hear the Gorder kid is back this week…but again he’s a true freshman.

Davenport suffered turf toe at Minnesota and still is having issues running.  Bruno is the man the rest of the season from what I’m hearing.

We are starting 6-7 true freshman this week.  Not many teams can say that.

We have more commits right now than we’ve ever had at this point of the year.  I met a few more Saturday that are committed but aren’t announcing it until another visit in December when they can get in uniform.  

I believe we can win 3 of the next 4 if we play the way we’re capable of playing.  Hopefully we’ll have some luck on our side.

 
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4EverPurple&Gold
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Leatherneck57 wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:54 pm
rocki wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 4:37 pm Following up on seal's post - do we have an injury report? I know last week they said JJ Ross was out (and the kid replacing him did a good job, I think), but I was kinda wondering about Davenport. We've seen both Ogala and Bruno, but not Davenport for a couple of games. I was just curios as to who all is out with injury.


 
JJ Ross is out for the season with a broken hand.  He broke it at SIU.  We are missing 4 offensive guards.  I hear the Gorder kid is back this week…but again he’s a true freshman.

Davenport suffered turf toe at Minnesota and still is having issues running.  Bruno is the man the rest of the season from what I’m hearing.

We are starting 6-7 true freshman this week.  Not many teams can say that.

We have more commits right now than we’ve ever had at this point of the year.  I met a few more Saturday that are committed but aren’t announcing it until another visit in December when they can get in uniform.  

I believe we can win 3 of the next 4 if we play the way we’re capable of playing.  Hopefully we’ll have some luck on our side.

 

 
Win 3 of the next 4.... Come on now. 
jtrinaldi
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Leatherneck57 wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:54 pm
rocki wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 4:37 pm Following up on seal's post - do we have an injury report? I know last week they said JJ Ross was out (and the kid replacing him did a good job, I think), but I was kinda wondering about Davenport. We've seen both Ogala and Bruno, but not Davenport for a couple of games. I was just curios as to who all is out with injury.


 
JJ Ross is out for the season with a broken hand.  He broke it at SIU.  We are missing 4 offensive guards.  I hear the Gorder kid is back this week…but again he’s a true freshman.

Davenport suffered turf toe at Minnesota and still is having issues running.  Bruno is the man the rest of the season from what I’m hearing.

We are starting 6-7 true freshman this week.  Not many teams can say that.

We have more commits right now than we’ve ever had at this point of the year.  I met a few more Saturday that are committed but aren’t announcing it until another visit in December when they can get in uniform.  

I believe we can win 3 of the next 4 if we play the way we’re capable of playing.  Hopefully we’ll have some luck on our side.

 

 
Great insight. Happy to see the freshman starting to play. As far as winning 3 of the next 4, I'd be thrilled with covering the 55 point spread against North Dakota State.
rocki
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Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:08 pm

Leatherneck57 wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:54 pm
rocki wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 4:37 pm Following up on seal's post - do we have an injury report? I know last week they said JJ Ross was out (and the kid replacing him did a good job, I think), but I was kinda wondering about Davenport. We've seen both Ogala and Bruno, but not Davenport for a couple of games. I was just curios as to who all is out with injury.


 
JJ Ross is out for the season with a broken hand.  He broke it at SIU.  We are missing 4 offensive guards.  I hear the Gorder kid is back this week…but again he’s a true freshman.

Davenport suffered turf toe at Minnesota and still is having issues running.  Bruno is the man the rest of the season from what I’m hearing.

We are starting 6-7 true freshman this week.  Not many teams can say that.

We have more commits right now than we’ve ever had at this point of the year.  I met a few more Saturday that are committed but aren’t announcing it until another visit in December when they can get in uniform.  

I believe we can win 3 of the next 4 if we play the way we’re capable of playing.  Hopefully we’ll have some luck on our side.

 

 
Thanks for the information!!! Starting 6-7 true freshmen - even if we don't pull out wins in the remaining games, it speaks well for the experience they will gain going into next year. A rebuild takes time - sounds like we're definitely headed in the right direction!
Leatherneck57
Posts: 358
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:41 am

4EverPurple&Gold wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:05 am
Leatherneck57 wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:54 pm
rocki wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 4:37 pm Following up on seal's post - do we have an injury report? I know last week they said JJ Ross was out (and the kid replacing him did a good job, I think), but I was kinda wondering about Davenport. We've seen both Ogala and Bruno, but not Davenport for a couple of games. I was just curios as to who all is out with injury.



 
JJ Ross is out for the season with a broken hand.  He broke it at SIU.  We are missing 4 offensive guards.  I hear the Gorder kid is back this week…but again he’s a true freshman.

Davenport suffered turf toe at Minnesota and still is having issues running.  Bruno is the man the rest of the season from what I’m hearing.

We are starting 6-7 true freshman this week.  Not many teams can say that.

We have more commits right now than we’ve ever had at this point of the year.  I met a few more Saturday that are committed but aren’t announcing it until another visit in December when they can get in uniform.  

I believe we can win 3 of the next 4 if we play the way we’re capable of playing.  Hopefully we’ll have some luck on our side.

 


 
Win 3 of the next 4.... Come on now. 

 
If we were 2-5 instead of 0-7 with wins over Southern Utah (blown coverage) and YSU (2 blown coverages on the late TD) would you feel like we could beat MO State, Indiana State and ISU?  Boy…I sure do.  I do being 0-7
 
leatherneckcountry
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Joined: Mon May 09, 2016 4:55 pm

Leatherneck57 wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 1:27 pm
4EverPurple&Gold wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:05 am
Leatherneck57 wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:54 pm

JJ Ross is out for the season with a broken hand.  He broke it at SIU.  We are missing 4 offensive guards.  I hear the Gorder kid is back this week…but again he’s a true freshman.

Davenport suffered turf toe at Minnesota and still is having issues running.  Bruno is the man the rest of the season from what I’m hearing.

We are starting 6-7 true freshman this week.  Not many teams can say that.

We have more commits right now than we’ve ever had at this point of the year.  I met a few more Saturday that are committed but aren’t announcing it until another visit in December when they can get in uniform.  

I believe we can win 3 of the next 4 if we play the way we’re capable of playing.  Hopefully we’ll have some luck on our side.

 



 
Win 3 of the next 4.... Come on now. 


 
If we were 2-5 instead of 0-7 with wins over Southern Utah (blown coverage) and YSU (2 blown coverages on the late TD) would you feel like we could beat MO State, Indiana State and ISU?  Boy…I sure do.  I do being 0-7
 

 
agreed is missouri st still playing or have they given up on the season Indiana St has one win against a bad UNA team ISU is 5-2 i'm pretty sure if we had there schedule we would have a similar record.
 
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ST_Lawson
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leatherneckcountry wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 3:34 pmagreed is missouri st still playing or have they given up on the season Indiana St has one win against a bad UNA team ISU is 5-2 i'm pretty sure if we had there schedule we would have a similar record.
 
We wouldn't be favored in any of our remaining games, but I could see us winning against most of them if we play well.

Missouri State - thought would be a lot tougher, but have kinda fallen apart the last month. Loss to SDSU was expected, but considering where I thought they'd be, they should have beaten UND and UNI pretty easily and would have been about even with SIU or a little better. All of those were losses. Don't know what's going on with them.

North Dakota State - not going to win that one

Indiana State - 1-6 with their only win being against North Alabama (in OT, at home). Lost by 6 to UNI, lost by 6 to YSU, lost by 6 to ILSU at their homecoming.

Illinois State - 5-2 is a pretty impressive record for where I thought they'd be going into the season, but their 5 wins have been over: Valpo (who is better than the Valpo of years past, but is still a non-scholarship Pioneer League team), Eastern Illinois (who's 2 wins are over winless Murray State and 3-5 Northwestern State), a struggling UNI (at 4-4), 2-5 South Dakota, and the previously mentioned Indiana State. So...good record, but at this point, not much in the way of impressive wins. Maybe UNI and USD, but that's not a huge resume. They still have games against both of the XDSU schools, so things will likely even out. They also have a game against YSU, which will do a much better job of telling me if we have a shot at beating them or not.
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