11/5/22 - vs North Dakota State

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ST_Lawson
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4EverPurple&Gold wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:11 pm I will be going to the Bombers game instead as I am sure a lot are. 

NDSU will have a lot of fans, they always travel great and super nice. 

 
The WIU game is at 1 PM and the MHS game is at 3 PM. You could check out the first half of the WIU game and probably still make it out to MHS by kickoff.
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sealhall74
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ST_Lawson wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:54 am  Image VSImage

Game Date/Time: Saturday, November 5 at 1 PM
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Media: ESPN+, Leatherneck Sports Network Radio
Live Stats: https://goleathernecks.com/sidearmstats ... ll/summary
Game Notes and Info: Western Illinois | North Dakota State

NDSU appears to be having something of a "down year" (by their standards). That means that they've actually lost 2 games this season, which has not been very common lately for the Bison. They started off the season with a couple of dominant home wins, 56-14 over Drake, then 43-3 over North Carolina A&T. They then (finally) were able to play an FBS game (most FBS teams have been avoiding them lately) and lost a close one to the PAC12's Arizona Wildcats (31-28). Rolling into the MVFC, they won at South Dakota (34-17), against Youngstown State (27-14), and at Indiana State (31-26) before suffering their second loss of the season in the Dakota Marker game against South Dakota State (23-21). They then followed that up with a 24-7 victory over Illinois State.

Here's the statistical comparison between the two teams. We actually have a bit more passing yards than NDSU so far this season, although they have over 3 times as many rushing yards than we do. We're still holding strong in the "fewest penalties" category, only losing 31.12 yards per game to penalties (3rd in the FCS). Otherwise, NDSU leads pretty much every category.

History

The Leathernecks and Bison have faced off 11 times going back to 2007. We've played every year from '07-'11, then '14-'19, which was our last meeting. NDSU holds a 9-2 series lead in that timeframe, with the only WIU victories being in 2008 and 2010. The last matchup with NDSU was in 2019, when WIU fell 57-21 at the Fargodome.

Rankings

Sagarin Ratings (includes all 261 DI teams): WIU is #206, NDSU is #78
Massey Composite: WIU is #101, NDSU is #6
NDSU is also #4 in both the STATS Perform Top 25 and the AnyGivenSaturday Top 28.
Massey Ratings gives us a 6% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 37-10 for the Bison.
 


 
That penalty statistic is very misleading IMO.  Seems every time we get one, it is a true back-breaker (e.g. holding on a 3rd and long we convert, pass interference on opponent 3rd and long, etc.)


My wife would love our stat page.  Her favorite number is 11.   lol
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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sealhall74
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My Neural Network has been retrained with conference team stats and scores for the CURRENT year.
Here is what it predicts for this week:

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { team: 'North Dakota St.', score: 40.298 },
  team2: { team: 'Western Ill.', score: 15.147 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

The spread is pretty much in agreement with Massey.
 
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
MB1965
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High winds and possible rain are predicted tomorrow which doesn't help the necks. Our running game is pretty weak and the few times we have moved the ball have been thru the air. NDST strength is pounding the rock  :lol: Will be a long day if we stick to the same predictable play calling we have seen all year. Need to try to mix it up somehow. 
  
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sealhall74
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If there were not already enough things going against us today, it also just happens to be National Bison Day.  No, I am not kidding.

I am not going to make the trek to Macomb.  Falling temperatures during the day along with a 30+ MPH wind are enough to keep me tuned into the ESPN stream.  MVFC game of the week so it should be a good broadcast.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
rocki
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sealhall74 wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:48 am If there were not already enough things going against us today, it also just happens to be National Bison Day.  No, I am not kidding.

I am not going to make the trek to Macomb.  Falling temperatures during the day along with a 30+ MPH wind are enough to keep me tuned into the ESPN stream.  MVFC game of the week so it should be a good broadcast.

 
It will be interesting, that's for sure. Wind pretty much knocks out any game we have..............
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sealhall74
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11 in the box and box was made of balsa wood.  smh
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
WIU2DC
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What was that penalty that they called on NDSU to get us the first down at the end of the 1st? The audio cut out when they announced it.


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sealhall74
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WIU2DC wrote: Sat Nov 05, 2022 1:37 pm What was that penalty that they called on NDSU to get us the first down at the end of the 1st? The audio cut out when they announced it.


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Might have been the "disconcerting signals" call.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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sealhall74
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No one stops the Triple I of the Bison.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald H. Coase
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