10/7/23 - at North Dakota

[ST_Lawson]

AT
Western Illinois at North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Date: 10/7/2023
Kickoff: 1 PM (Central)
Location: Alerus Center, Grand Forks, ND
Media: ESPN+, Q98.1 FM
Game Notes: Not yet posted

About the University of North Dakota
UND is a public university located in Grand Forks, ND with just over 14k students. They were a member of the DII North Central Conference (NCC) from 1922 until 2008, which for a long time included such familiar names as NDSU, USD, SDSU, UNI, and Nebraska-Omaha. They moved up to the DI Great West Conference initially, then moved to the Big Sky in 2012, and finally to the MVFC and Summit League in 2018/2019. In 2001, UND won the DII national championship and finished with a record of 14-1.

UND's Record and Stats
The Hawks are currently 2-2 this season, starting with a 55-7 win over Drake then a 37-22 win over Northern Arizona. They then followed that up with a 42-18 loss at FBS Boise State and a 42-21 loss to FCS #1 South Dakota State. Last season, they went 7-5 overall, including wins over then #24 Northern Iowa and #7 Missouri State and finished their season with a 38-31 loss at #9 Weber State in the first round of the FCS playoffs. We did not play them last year. WIU has played UND three times in our histories, a 28-7 loss in Macomb in 1979, a 38-21 loss in Macomb in the spring 2021 season, and a 34-10 loss at Grand Forks in the fall of 2021.
UND's primary QB is senior Tommy Schuster with 79 completions on 109 attempts (72.48%) for 781 yards (195.25/game), 4 TDs and 0 INTS for a rating of 150.83 plus 2 rushing TDs. Top recieving targets include Senior WR Bo Belquist (79.75 ypg, 2 TDs), Senior WR Red Wilson (40.25 ypg), and Grad WR Wesley Eliodor (28.5 ypg and 2 TDs). On the ground, they're led by Soph RB Gaven Ziebarth (59.5 ypg and 2 TDs), Soph RB Donavan Hunt (35 ypg and 2 TDs) and Senior TE Quincy Vaughn (12 total yards, but 4 TDs).
On the defensive side of the ball, top tacklers include Junior LB Wyatt Pedigo (26 tackles, 3.5 for loss with 1 forced fumble and 3 fumble recoveries), Grad DB Kadon Kauppinen (19 tackles), Grad DB Malachi Buckner (18 tackles) and Soph LB Malachi McNeal (18 tackles, 2.5 for loss). Their punter, R-Freshman Luke Sulvernale has 13 punts for an average of 40.23 yards per punt.

Chance of Victory
Massey says 10% chance of a WIU victory, with a predicted score of 41-20 for the Hawks: https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287894
Sagarin says 17% chance of a win.
So...I'd say not very likely. Our best chance of a win the rest of the season is likely Indiana State, who is also 0-4, including a 27-0 loss to EIU and a 2-point loss to fellow MVFC "cellar dweller" Murray State.
 

[sealhall74]

I finally got the neural network trained to my liking for this year.  In the past, I used all the FCS games for training.  This year, I am excluding early season games when teams play a lot of games they have little chance winning (or losing).  The stats from those games are mostly meaningless IMO.  So after training using all the meaningful FCS stats and game outcomes from last year and using the latest stats from this year, the neural net prediction is:
 
{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'Western Ill.', score: 24.559 },
  team2: { id: 'North Dakota', score: 33.26 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

I will continue to train the neural net with the meaningful games from this year as the season progresses.

Next challenge is this:  If you have a reasonably reliable neural network predictor for college football games, can a neural network also tell you which one is the best one to bet on?  That will keep me busy for a week or so.

UPDATE: just for the hell of it, I checked to see how we might matchup against ISUb.  Things are looking up.

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'Western Ill.', score: 35.998 },
  team2: { id: 'Indiana St.', score: 0.314 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}
 
 
 
 
 
 

[rocki]

Not looking for a win here, but would definitely like to see a game we are able to play all 4 quarters in. The second half fade is getting real old real fast.

[vatusay]

Hopefully the strength and condition program made some bye week adjustments. 

[wiu712]

WGEM Prediction:  North Dakota 50, Western Illinois 13
 

[Tere North]

Hopefully the strength and condition program made some bye week adjustments. 

 

Gonna take a heck of a lot longer than a bye week to improve strength and conditioning. 

[vatusay]

I’d be willing to bet Jose canseco could be hired on the cheap.  

[bignecks]

this is gonna be a long game

[bignecks]

anybody have an idea of what happened with the player getting hurt and the foul being called?

[rocki]

Welp, we still have problems. Big problems. And I couldn't see what happened to Detiveaux - the replay focused on the incomplete pass.