OVC Tournament Projections

[ST_Lawson]

The remaining games for the OVC teams this week are (all games on ESPN+):

Tuesday 2/27
5 PM - SIUE (2-14) at EIU (13-16)

Thursday 2/29
4 PM - SEMO (5-11) at Morehead State (9-7)
5 PM - EIU (10-6) at Western Illinois (7-9)
5 PM - TSU (6-10) at Little Rock (9-7)
5 PM - Lindenwood (5-11) at USI (15-1)
5:30 PM - TTU (10-6) at UT Martin (10-6)

Saturday 3/2
12 PM - Lindenwood (5-11) at Morehead State (9-7)
1 PM - SIUE (2-14) at WIU (7-9)
1 PM - TTU (10-6) at Little Rock (9-7)
1 PM - TSU (6-10) at UT Martin (10-6)
5 PM - SEMO (5-11) at USI (15-1)

I don't think we can finish higher than #7 at this point, since even if we win both our games, and Morehead State and Little Rock lose both their games (so we all finish 9-9), it looks like Morehead State and UALR would win the tiebreakers over us. We need to finish at least 1-1 to lock in a spot in the conference tournament. If we lose both and TSU and SEMO win both of their games, we could drop to the #9 spot and be out of the tournament.

With one week left in the season, here's how Massey projects the season to wrap up for the OVC...

1. Southern Indiana (17-1)
2. UT Martin (12-6)
3. Morehead State (11-7) - 2-1 vs EIU and UALR, 1-0 vs Little Rock H2H
4. Little Rock (11-7) - 2-1 vs EIU and MSU, 0-1 vs Morehead State H2H
5. Eastern Illinois (11-7) - 1-3 vs MSU and UALR
6. Tennessee Tech (10-8)
7. Western Illinois (9-9) - Massey has us winning both games, although with EIU it's essentially a coin-flip (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=939100878)
8. Tennessee State (6-12)
9. Lindenwood (5-13) - 1-1 vs #2 UT Martin
10. Southeast Missouri (5-13) - 0-2 vs #2 UT Martin
11. SIUE (2-16)

Which sets the conference tournament bracket as:

Wednesday
Game 1 at 1 PM - #5 Eastern Illinois vs #8 Tennessee State
Game 2 at 3:30 PM - #6 Tennessee Tech vs #7 Western Illinois

Thursday
Game 3 at 1 PM - Winner of Game 1 vs #4 Little Rock
Game 4 at 3:30 PM - Winner of Game 2 vs #3 Morehead State

Friday
Game 5 at 1 PM - Winner of Game 3 vs #1 Southern Indiana
Game 6 at 3:30 PM - Winner of Game 4 vs #2 UT Martin

Saturday
Game 7 at 2 PM - Winner of Game 5 vs Winner of Game 6

[ST_Lawson]

Update after Tuesday and Thursday games...

Current OVC standings:
Southern Indiana - 16-1
UT Martin - 11-6
Eastern Illinois - 11-7
Tennessee Tech - 10-7
Little Rock - 10-7
Morehead State - 9-8
Western Illinois - 8-9
Tennessee State - 6-11
Southeast Missouri - 6-11
Lindenwood - 5-12
SIU Edwardsville - 2-15

Saturdays games (listed with chance of win) are...
12 PM - Lindenwood at Morehead State - MSU win 71%
1 PM - SIU Edwardsville at Western Illinois - WIU win 68%
1 PM - Tennessee Tech at Little Rock - UALR win 54%
1 PM - Tennessee State at UT Martin - UTM win 83%
5 PM - Southeast Missouri at Southern Indiana - USI win 75%

Currently nobody behind us can catch us. Ahead of us, if we win and Morehead State loses, we'll both be 9-9. We split with them in the regular season (damn double-OT game last week), so it goes to record against the top teams. Against USI we both lost both games (damn OT game last week). Against UT Martin, we both split. Against EIU we both split. Against Little Rock, we lost and they won, so it looks like MSU wins the tiebreaker. That means we should be the #7 seed regardless of what happens.

The other game to watch will be TN Tech at Little Rock. It's essentially a "coin flip" with UALR having a 54% chance to win. Morehead State has a good chance of winning their game, putting them at 10-8, and the loser of TN Tech and Little Rock would also be 10-8.
MSU would win the tiebreakers over both UALR and TN Tech, which means that we will most likely be playing the loser of that game in the first round of the conference tournament. We played both UALR and TN Tech once this season and lost both games.

[wiu712]

Looks like it doesn't make much difference if Western finishes 6th or 7th as those two teams will face each other in a first-round game on Wednesday.

The winner of that game will play the #3 seed on Thursday.

Tournament bracket:
 https://ovcsports.com/documents/2023/10 ... f?id=17612
 
 

[sealhall74]

How the hell do you buy tickets to the tournament.  Ford Center does not even show it on their event page.  Every session on the ticketmaster site tell me "No seats available".  Morehead St is the only conference team athletic site that had a page for buying tickets when I looked a week or so ago.
 

[ST_Lawson]

How the hell do you buy tickets to the tournament.  Ford Center does not even show it on their event page.  Every session on the ticketmaster site tell me "No seats available".  Morehead St is the only conference team athletic site that had a page for buying tickets when I looked a week or so ago.
 

https://www.ticketmaster.com/ohio-valle ... ist/906008

At this page: https://admin.ovcsports.com/feature/evansville2024
Then scroll down to the Tickets section.

[sealhall74]

How the hell do you buy tickets to the tournament.  Ford Center does not even show it on their event page.  Every session on the ticketmaster site tell me "No seats available".  Morehead St is the only conference team athletic site that had a page for buying tickets when I looked a week or so ago.


 

https://www.ticketmaster.com/ohio-valle ... ist/906008

At this page: https://admin.ovcsports.com/feature/evansville2024
Then scroll down to the Tickets section.


 

Single session seems to work although from I can tell it doubles your ticket cost with fees, etc.  1 ticket = $13.  Checkout price was 26. I did not try to buy one.  I want an all session ticket and I dont see any way to make it happen.  Supposedly, you can get an all-session ticket for $80.
 
 

[wiu712]

The PA announcer at Western Hall made announcements several times during the games as to how to get an All-Session Ticket to the OVC Tournament.

If I remember correctly, the price was $60 if purchased before Feb 23.
 

[ST_Lawson]

If my calculations are correct, we should be playing Tennessee Tech on Wednesday. They lost in OT to UALR.


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