WIU vs North Dakota State (10/13/2018)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Game Time: 6:00 PM on Saturday, October 13th
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather:


TV/Radio:
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: WRMS 94.3 (Beardstown), WJEQ 102.7 (Macomb)
Streaming Audio - wrmsfm.com, WRMS on Tunein.com

About the Bison
NDSU is currently 8th in the FCS in points per game (40.4) and 6th in points per game allowed (13.6). They don't throw the ball a ton (95th in FCS in passing yards), but they can pretty much have their way with a team on the ground (8th in rushing yards). Defensively, they're good against all facets, but are slightly weaker against the pass (20th in FCS) than they are against the run (13th). The Bison are 5-0 currently, beating their first three opponents (all non-conference) by a combined 125-20. They had difficulty with SDSU, but ultimately prevailed 21-10, then last weekend they faced Northern Iowa, where it was close for the first 3 quarters until NDSU blew open a big lead, taking a 56-31 win.

Series History: WIU has played NDSU 9 times starting back in 2007 and we are 2-7 against them in that time. WIU won in 2008, 27-22, and then in 2010 with a score of 28-16, both in the Fargodome. The last two meetings in Macomb were close games, despite the high ranking of the Bison, with NDSU taking a 17-10 win in 2014 and a 21-13 win in 2016.

Predictions:
Massey - 35-17 NDSU win
CompughterRatings.com - 42-17 NDSU win
Sagarin - 23 point NDSU win

Rankings:
Sagarin (out of all DI teams): NDSU 30, WIU 140
Massey Composite: NDSU 1, WIU 32

My Take
This will be, hands down, the toughest game we will play this season. If we want to win this, we're going to have to play the best we've played all season, plus probably get a few lucky breaks on things. That being said, NDSU has struggled somewhat in Macomb in the past. Also, they usually seem to drop 1 MVFC game nearly every year en route to the playoffs. In 2011 it was Youngstown State, 2012 was Indiana State, 2014 was Northern Iowa, 2015 was South Dakota, 2016 and 2017 were South Dakota State. Maybe this year it's Western Illinois. There's a reason they play the games...upsets do happen. Just this last weekend #2 James Madison lost to Elon, #3 South Dakota State had to go to OT to beat Indiana State, #6 Weber State lost to Northern Arizona (who was demolished by Missouri State earlier), and #14 Montana lost at home to Portland State...Portland State's first DI win since 11/5/2016. Obviously the odds are against us, but that just means we really have nothing to lose. Everyone expects us to lose this game...by a lot. A close loss might still be impressive, but a win over the defending national champions would be HUGE. I'm not going to make a prediction this time...I just hope to see a close, exciting game.

[sealhall74]

On the very bright side, if we win and if UNI beats USD (Massey has it about even), we will likely be tied for first place in the conference with seven other teams with, arguably, the easiest schedule going forward. If that's not motivation, I don't know what is.

[Necks2003]

This squad needs to finally knock off NDSU, if nothing other than the fact that they have had them beat several of the past few times we have played them and just couldn't pull it off.

If not, I agree with the previous post they need to start looking at developing some younger talent. Especially at the QB position. Trent Norvell was on pace to break several school records as well until he was benched his senior season to start the younger generation QB under the post Nielson regime. You can't keep a QB starting if they are not giving the team the best chance to win games. The personal accolades need to be a second priority.

[LocalYokelFan]

If not, I agree with the previous post they need to start looking at developing some younger talent. Especially at the QB position. Trent Norvell was on pace to break several school records as well until he was benched his senior season to start the younger generation QB under the post Nielson regime. You can't keep a QB starting if they are not giving the team the best chance to win games. The personal accolades need to be a second priority.

This is such a slippery slope to me, so I'm glad Coach Elliot is paid to make these decisions and not me. I think McGuire started playing ahead of Norvell because he legit, at that moment in which he took over, gave WIU the better chance to win. In my mind at least, it wasn't about "next year" as much as it was "next game". I don't think there is another player on the roster at QB right now that could come close to what McGuire gives you "next game". Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see this at all like the Norvell/McGuire situation.

I also think it's just a dangerous concept to play younger guys to gain them experience instead of just playing the best player. It creates a pretty challenging locker room situation if the best players in practice aren't getting time on game day just because they are JRs/SRs. I get it in the rare "total re-build" situation -- like Lovie did the past 2 years at Illinois - but I don't think WIU is anywhere near that. We lost some key pieces from some pretty good football teams and are struggling to replace them. The faster this team's O-line develops in the run game, the faster this team improves, IMHO.

[ST_Lawson]

This is such a slippery slope to me, so I'm glad Coach Elliot is paid to make these decisions and not me. I think McGuire started playing ahead of Norvell because he legit, at that moment in which he took over, gave WIU the better chance to win. In my mind at least, it wasn't about "next year" as much as it was "next game". I don't think there is another player on the roster at QB right now that could come close to what McGuire gives you "next game". Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see this at all like the Norvell/McGuire situation.

This is how I feel too. McGuire was initially put in because Norvell was sick (appendicitis...if I remember correctly). Once McGuire had a chance to play in the Indiana State game and then the end of the regular season game against South Dakota State (both OT wins), he had shown that despite Norvell's numbers, McGuire was a better overall QB and a great leader, so he earned the starting spot, played through the playoffs and then started ever since.

Now, if, for example, McGuire were to get injured or something, and we put in Sampson...then it kinda depends on when it happens in the season and where we are in our potential playoff situation. Personally though, I think you gotta start McGuire as long as you can, although in any games that are lopsided one way or the other, and especially after we're out of playoff consideration, put Sampson in there to get him more experience.

[Tmelker]

[letsgonecks]

I'm a bit confused by this QB talk. I'll agree and Sean probably would as well that he he's made a few poor decisions that hurt us and thrown a few other balls that weren't the best, but this guy is a very good QB.

The issue here is our OL and I cut them slack since they're mostly young and working together for their first season. With that said, we have 0 running game, minus McShane's huge run that wasn't even made possible by them clearing an initial lane. Outside of that our only success has been jet sweeps, so teams can focus and game plan on limiting our passing game. Sean has still done a darn good job getting us yards and a chance at points.

You want Sean to not throw to his initial receiver on most passing plays, well that would be great if we had a line he could trust. I wish he could go through his progressions and find the open guy, but again he needs time for that. Instead, he's forced to read the defense pre-snap and decide what option looks best. If he's not already feeling the pocket collapse or being forced to move right away, he then finds the guy like he's done on a lot of his TD throws.

He was lucky to have Lance and Joey and then having Acklin morph into the best receiver we've ever had his last year and yes they did bail him out and improve his numbers, but he also put them in a position to do what they did. In my book he's right up there with Michna who I feel was our best QB and Russ threw 14 picks his senior year on a very good team with a good line and RB Glassford who ran for about 1400 yards and 20 TD's.

[sealhall74]

Klieman says they are staying closer to Macomb this time, about an hour away. I would think it would probably be the PZAZZ in Burlington or the Best Westerm Prairie Inn in Galesburg. An hour of travel is not so bad, you get used to it, especially if you have lived in the big city and commuted to work for a few years of your life.

Regarding OLine and QB situation, I am more disappointed with the lack of any creative play calling in an attempt to compensate for our youth in the OLine. Our running plays have been dirt simple, mostly single back sets. I need to watch the ISUr game again, but I think I only saw two multi-back formations (one Power I and one Pistol "Delta") all day long and Sean threw the ball both times out of them. If you dont use both backs and have a running play threat with some fake handoffs and misdirection in the scheme, the D will simply squeeze the edges and clog the gaps. I dont think I saw any short screen passes on Saturday either. That can keep the D spread out a bit as well. Sean is our best bet but I am not sure he can take the beating he is getting week after week.

[wiu712]

North Dakota State played their first 4 games at home in the Fargo Dome. Their 5th game was played vs Northern Iowa in the UNI-Dome.

Their game here on Saturday will be their first outside game of the season.

[ST_Lawson]

Bison Video Blog: Western Illinois Preview: http://bisonmedia.areavoices.com/bison- ... preview-2/