WIU at Missouri State (10/20/2018)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Game Time: 2:00 PM on Saturday, October 20th
Location: Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO
Weather:


TV/Radio:
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: WRMS 94.3 (Beardstown), WJEQ 102.7 (Macomb)
Streaming Audio - wrmsfm.com, WRMS on Tunein.com

About the Bears
MSU is having an uncommonly good season, currently sitting at 4-2 for the first time since 2007. They opened the season with a 58-17 loss to FBS Oklahoma State, then beat DII Lincoln University 52-24. Then things got weird. The Bears hosted then #20 Northern Arizona and crushed them 40-8. They then opened conference play against then #9 Illinois State and won 24-21, blocking the last second FG that would have tied the game. The last two weeks, MSU has been on the road, losing 35-28 at South Dakota, then winning at Indiana State 29-26.
Overall, they have a good offensive line, allowing the fewest sacks of any MVFC team (averaging 1 per game allowed). QB Peyton Huslig will be a handful to deal with, accounting for 260.8 average yards per game of total offense (rushing and passing), which is 3rd in the MVFC. His 352 rushing yards makes him the #1 rushing QB in the conference, more than 150 yards ahead of #2 (INSU's Ryan Boyle) and he has 5 TDs rushing. RB Jason Randall is the other main ground threat with just under 60 yards per game and 5 TDs. In the passing game, Huslig throws for just over 200 ypg with 7 TDs and 7 INTs (he's the only QB in the conference who doesn't have more TDs thrown than INTs). There's no real primary receiver, although WR Lorenzo Thomas has gotten the most catches, but 4 players average between 31 and 43 ypg, 5 receivers have at least 1 receiving TD, but nobody has more than 2. On defense, MSU is ranked last in the MVFC in passing defense and 2nd to last in rushing defense. That isn't to say that they don't have a few solid players. LB Angelo Garbutt leads the team with 56 tackles (30 solo), which is 5th in the MVFC. DE Matt McClellan is #3 (behind WIU's Pete Swenson and Khalen Saunders) in the conference in tackles for loss with 8 for 38 yards in 6 games, and is #2 in sacks with 5.5.

Series History: WIU has played MSU (formerly Southwest Missouri State) 35 times going back to 1981. The series is currently tied at 17-17-1. WIU has won the last two matchups ('16 and '17), but MSU won the 5 before that back to 2009. Last year's game was a 49-30 win for the Leathernecks in Macomb, and 2016 was a close 38-35 win in Springfield, MO where MSU came from being down 17 points in the 4th quarter with 3 TDs to take the lead. WIU was only able to take it back with under a minute left to go in the game.

Predictions:
Massey - 31-28 MSU win
CompughterRatings.com - 35-27 MSU win
Sagarin - 7 point MSU win

Rankings:
Sagarin (out of all DI teams): MSU 127, WIU 145
Massey Ratings: MSU 17, WIU 24

My Take
Honestly, I don't get how we're not favored in this game. MSU has a decent offense...mostly it's the QB, who can run really well for a QB. We have the third best run defense in the conference behind only NDSU and ILSU. We also have the second best pass defense behind only ILSU, and their QB throws a lot of INTs. For our offense, while we've struggled running the ball, MSU has the 2nd to last run defense in the MVFC, so I think we can get a few yards this time (as opposed to against NDSU). We also have the #3 passing offense in the conference and they have the last place passing defense. We don't play well on offense when we're down by more than a couple of scores (that's when nearly all of our INTs have happened), so we want to avoid falling behind too much. Barring that, I think we win this one. MSU is 4-2 overall against the 21st toughest SoS (according to Massey Ratings). We're 2-4, but against the 2nd toughest SoS. I gotta go with WIU winning by about 10, maybe 38-28.

[GV Dad]

Agreed. I think the cream rises to the top here. The 4-2 record is smoke and mirrors, and we match up very well. I'm not real happy with all the mistakes the team is still making in game 6, but we are going to pop out of it soon. Hopefully this weekend!

[LocalYokelFan]

I think all the remaining games are toss-ups. I predicted 4-5 wins at the beginning of the year and I'll stick with that. MSU gets us at home, where they have played improved football and beaten 2 - Top 25 teams already.

I get what you're saying about the "Cream rises to the top", GV, but I don't think either of these teams are the "cream". These two teams are dissolved sugar hoping they keep stirred and don't settle down to the bottom! I understand last week running into the juggernaut that is NSDU, but I was at the ISU game and was just so disappointed in how we got shoved around at the end of that game. I'm not sure how that gets fixed at this point in the season.

I'll say this -- we gain over 150 yds on the ground, we win. They keep us under 100 yds on the ground, they win. In between -- flip a coin.

[rocki]

To me, it all depends on what our offense does. If they finally get stuff clicking the way it should be, it will be a better chance for a win. If they play like they have been the last couple of weeks and with MSU being at home, I think we lose. Our defense has stepped up and played some really good ball, but they've also been left stranded out on the field for too long and run out of steam.

I'm honestly not sure. I would love a win, but this one I can honestly see losing to the Bears. They play well at home, and even with an experienced team the last time we played them at Plaster Field we barely eked out the W.

[leatherneckcountry]

I think all the remaining games are toss-ups. I predicted 4-5 wins at the beginning of the year and I'll stick with that. MSU gets us at home, where they have played improved football and beaten 2 - Top 25 teams already.

I get what you're saying about the "Cream rises to the top", GV, but I don't think either of these teams are the "cream". These two teams are dissolved sugar hoping they keep stirred and don't settle down to the bottom! I understand last week running into the juggernaut that is NSDU, but I was at the ISU game and was just so disappointed in how we got shoved around at the end of that game. I'm not sure how that gets fixed at this point in the season.

I'll say this -- we gain over 150 yds on the ground, we win. They keep us under 100 yds on the ground, they win. In between -- flip a coin.

I agree I said at the beginning of the year we would win 4-5 games with my biggest concerns being the Oline which has gotten worse each week and not have a deep threat and Lesure has still been way to inconsistent. I look at this game as the post NDSU effect teams typically don’t play well the week after NDSU and we have played great in the past the week after them. I think we either win or lose by a FG

[GV Dad]

I think all the remaining games are toss-ups. I predicted 4-5 wins at the beginning of the year and I'll stick with that. MSU gets us at home, where they have played improved football and beaten 2 - Top 25 teams already.

I get what you're saying about the "Cream rises to the top", GV, but I don't think either of these teams are the "cream". These two teams are dissolved sugar hoping they keep stirred and don't settle down to the bottom! I understand last week running into the juggernaut that is NSDU, but I was at the ISU game and was just so disappointed in how we got shoved around at the end of that game. I'm not sure how that gets fixed at this point in the season.

I'll say this -- we gain over 150 yds on the ground, we win. They keep us under 100 yds on the ground, they win. In between -- flip a coin.

I'm not claiming we are a 9-2 playoff team in disguise. I'm saying I don't believe MO St is anywhere near as good as their 4-2 record would lead you to believe. I'm from Missouri, so I am well aware of how horrible that program is. So yes, I do believe we are the cream of this game.

[ST_Lawson]

I'm not claiming we are a 9-2 playoff team in disguise. I'm saying I don't believe MO St is anywhere near as good as their 4-2 record would lead you to believe. I'm from Missouri, so I am well aware of how horrible that program is. So yes, I do believe we are the cream of this game.

Yeah, it's a 4-2 that's really a 3-2 (one's a DII). They beat Indiana State, a NAU team that's had a couple of decent wins but is down from the offensive powerhouse they were a year or two ago, and Illinois State. That ISU win was a good one, I'll give them that, and they do play tough at home, so I don't think it'll be a cakewalk. But, our defense is, by just about every measure, better than theirs by quite a bit, and while they have a better run game at this point than we do, we have a much better passing offense than they do and better than most of the teams they've played. All it takes is one short pass to an open McShane and he can still make huge plays. Just gotta limit mistakes and try to get McShane back in on the short game (passing and running).

I could be way wrong on this, but while MSU is better, I still feel like we're a better team overall, especially defensively.

[letsgonecks]

WIU getting the W here starts and ends with stopping Huslig. The reason they don't allow the sacks is his ability to move and make plays with his feet. He is the real deal and fearless. Bring pressure with blitzing LB's and spy with a safety up in the box. This puts pressure on the CB's and single high safety if we don't get home, but limit his running or at least big plays and we'll win this game.

Not worried about the offense. I know there's mention of data supporting poor play after teams play NDSU, but Sean should have a bounce back game and things should feel a bit easier out their for the offense. Nothing against MSU, but they give up a ton of yards passing and after facing what is likely a top 30 defense in ALL of college football, we should put up some points.

Limit Huslig on the ground and we win by 2 scores. He beats us with his feet and arm, we're looking at a closer game you have to give to the home team. I'm glad to see MSU doing well and hope that after a loss to us they pick back up on the winning ways (as long as it wouldn't somehow cost us a playoff spot after winning out). Not promising for them with the DSU's and a decent UNI team still up.

[Tmelker]

I am hoping this team puts its first full game together this week. A complete game would go a long ways to getting the win. NDSU is #1 for a reason they are loaded with talent and play as a team with 11 guys on the field doing their job. There was nothing fancy just a team which worked in unison. There are a lots of things to work on and clean up. The blitzes and pass rush are creating turnovers. Lack of a running game allow teams to not respect the run and push the decision of the quarterback. The O-line has done pretty well considering its lack of experience, communication is key in their development. The defense is really playing very well, get the offense run game going and we will win the rest of the games remaining on the schedule. It is time for this team to become a team and play for each other for a full game. It is really gut check time for them and time to shine.

[ST_Lawson]

WIU getting the W here starts and ends with stopping Huslig. The reason they don't allow the sacks is his ability to move and make plays with his feet. He is the real deal and fearless. Bring pressure with blitzing LB's and spy with a safety up in the box. This puts pressure on the CB's and single high safety if we don't get home, but limit his running or at least big plays and we'll win this game.

This is a big part of why I like our chances. Saunders, Moon, Swenson, Fitzpatrick, etc....our defense is very good at stopping the run.

Look at last week, for example. Now, Easton Stick is not the best running QB, but he isn't bad (196 rushing yards, 3rd best running QB in the conference, 7 rushing TDs) and his O-Line is really good.
They allowed 0 sacks in their first 3 games, SDSU had 3 against them, UNI had 1 against them, WIU....we had 4.
Stick ran for 49 yards and 1 TD against Cal Poly, 6 yards and 1 TD against North Alabama, 41 yards and 2 TDs against Delaware, 63 yards and 1 TD against SDSU, 35 yards and 2 TDs against UNI. Against WIU...2 yards, 0 TDs.
The other decent "running" QB we've played against is YSU's Montgomery VanGorder who has 155 yards rushing this season. No FCS teams have held him under 20 in a game (not a huge number, I know)...West Virginia held him to 16...WIU held him to 11 yards with 2 sacks (WVU had 1).
Obviously none of those stats exist in a bubble...the various situations, effectiveness of the passing game, many other factors...all play into how much or how well a QB runs. But, of the two top running QBs we've faced, we've held them to fewer yards than anyone else. I have confidence that our guys can do something similar this weekend. Probably not stop him completely, but slow him down enough to limit his abilities and force him to pass more.