DarcyP wrote: Sat Aug 26, 2023 7:39 pm
Watching UMess v. New Messico State and wondering if we might have a chance versus this Bottom Ten stalwart. Comments?
As compared to other FBS teams, yes they're both pretty bad, but over the last year, we've been quite a bit worse.
New Mexico State actually went 7-6 overall last year...6-6, plus a win over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl.
That being said, according to Massey Ratings, they fall squarely in the middle of the range of difficulty we'll have this year, giving us a 23% chance of a win.
That's a higher chance than: Missouri State (21%), SIU (16%), North Dakota (12%), UNI (6%), and NDSU (2%)
The teams that should be "easier" than NMSU are: South Dakota (26%), Illinois State (29%), Indiana State (35%), Southern Utah (36%), and the lone game where we're favored...Lindenwood (67%).
So...I guess if we've made some SIGNIFICANT improvements in the offseason, then we might have a shot, but I'm not holding my breath. I think our "ceiling" is probably wins over Lindenwood, SUU, and both ISU's to go 4-7 this year. I'll watch the game...of course I'd love to see us win it...but it seems rather unlikely.