2024 Week 11 - vs Tennessee State

[ST_Lawson]

  VS
Date: 11/9/2024
Time: 1 PM CT
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb
TV: ESPN+
Current Weather Prediction: 52 degrees and cloudy, 57% chance of showers, ~12 mph wind (updated 11/8)

TSU's Record: Tennessee State is 6-3 on the season, with a 3-2 conference record. They opened with a 42-21 win over Mississippi Valley State, then traveled to Fargo to lose to NDSU 52-3. They beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41-28 in the Southern Heritage Classic. In the OVC, they lost at Tennessee Tech (24-14), beat Charleston Southern (13-9), beat Lindenwood (24-20), then beat EIU (41-17) at TSU's Homecoming game. They went back out-of-conference for a week, beating Howard University, 27-14, before coming back home and to the OVC, falling to UT Martin (28-21) last weekend.

Comparing common opponents:

• Tennessee Tech - we beat them by 16, TSU lost to them by 10
• Charleston Southern - we beat them by 11, TSU beat them by 4
• Lindenwood - we lost by 11, TSU beat them by 4
• Eastern Illinois - we lost by 7, TSU beat them by 24
• UT Martin - we lost by 28, TSU lost by 7

History: There is none. We have never played Tennessee State in football.

Players to Know:

• Grad QB Draylen Ellis has 231.6 ypg through the air with 15 TDs and 6 INTs. His QB rating is 132.39. He also averages 11.56 ypg on the ground with 1 rushing TD
• Jr WR Karate Brenson leads the team in receiving yards with 74.44 per game and 3 TDs
• Sr WR Jalal Dean has 53.22 ypg receiving, but also 5 TDs
• Jr RB Jaden McGill leads the team in rushing yards with 31.78 per game and 1 TD.
• Sr LB Ahmad Nelson leads the team in tackles with 57 (38 solo) and has 1 forced fumble
• Grad DL Keandre Booker has 6.5 sacks in his 10.5 tackles for loss and has 1 forced fumble
• Jr DB Boogie Trotter has 39 tackles (27 solo), but also 3 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries
• SR RB CJ Evans gets a few yards on the ground on offense (23.44 per game) and has 2 rushing TDs, but also averages 44.38 yards per kickoff return with 2 return TDs and picked up the BS/OVC Special Teams Player of the Week award after throwing down a 98-yard kickoff return for TD last weekend against UT Martin.

Local-ish Players on Their Roster:

• WR Karate Brenson and WR Malik Billingsley are both from Christian Brothers College HS in St. Louis, MO
• RB Jaden McGill is from Naperville Central HS and spent time at the College of DuPage
• DB Dominique Dixon is from Cardinal Ritter College Prep in St. Louis
• OL Darien Farmer is from West Aurora HS in Auroura, IL

Predictions: Our ratings took a pretty big hit after losing to EIU last weekend. I know Massey had us losing by 4, but I still thought we had a solid chance to take this one. I'd say we do still stand a chance in two of our final three games, but to do that, our defense has to step up and make a few stops. Massey says TSU has a 55% chance of winning, with a predicted score of 34-31, which is almost exactly what they said about our game with EIU: https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=940319173

In conference games, we have the #3 offense in the BS/OVC putting up 32.2 points per game. TSU, however, has the #1 defense, allowing only 19.6 points per game.
On the other side of the ball, we have the #8 defense allowing 36 points per game, and TSU has the #8 offense, putting up only 22.6 points per game.
So, really this is a game of strength vs strength, and weakness vs weakness. Their strongest feature is their pass defense, whereas ours is our passing game.
Like the EIU or Lindenwood games...if our defense can come up with a few stops, we can win. We also have got to work on stopping their star kickoff returner CJ Evans. He has the potential to make a huge play or at the very least, give them great starting field position, every time he's back for a kickoff.
 

[34blast]

I know we have only won 2 games this year, but it feels much better than last year.   We have a really good offense.   I feel like new coaches have done a great job with the offense and putting pieces together.

Watching the defense is like watching a knife cut through hot butter.    For this year,  we just kinda have to try to outscore the opponents and hope to get some turnovers.   Next year,  I think we can address the defense with a few portal players and be better.   I think we just need some better defensive players before next year.

We win this week in high scoring affair.
 

[wiu712]

Western has won 3 games this year:  McKendree, Charleston Southern, and Tennessee Tech.

[ST_Lawson]

I know we have only won 2 games this year, but it feels much better than last year.   We have a really good offense.   I feel like new coaches have done a great job with the offense and putting pieces together.

Watching the defense is like watching a knife cut through hot butter.    For this year,  we just kinda have to try to outscore the opponents and hope to get some turnovers.   Next year,  I think we can address the defense with a few portal players and be better.   I think we just need some better defensive players before next year.
 

I agree. Offense has really taken a step up over the past few years, especially in the run game. This year we're averaging 128.7 ypg on the ground with 14 TDs so far. Compare that to the last few years:
2023 - 47.6 ypg, 5 rushing TDs
2022 - 89.3 ypg, 2 rushing TDs
2021 - 62.1 ypg, 9 rushing TDs
If we pick up two more rushing TDs in our three remaining games, we'll have equaled the rushing TD total for the last three seasons combined.

Defensively though, we're allowing 43.78 points per game. in the past three years, that number was 46.27 (2023), 38.73 (2022), and 38.82 (2021), so defense has remained pretty well stagnant. I would have expected at least a bit of a defensive improvement with us moving to an easier conference, but that hasn't happened. Hopefully it's just a matter of needing a bit more time to bring in the players they want, but it's worrisome when I see defensive guys in completely the wrong spots to defend a pass or even attempt to stop a run. I feel like that's more on the coaches...defensive schemes and proper technique.

[NewNeck]

If nothing else, the conference slate has been fun to watch compared to prior years getting our tails kicked in.  We're a few defensive stops/turnovers away from being 4-1 in the league and playing for something special.  The defense is a catastrophe week in and week out even in the games we've won.  Not sure what the issue is but it seems we have very few playmakers on that side and holdovers like Smith, De La Cruz, Coleman, Henry haven't done anything special or had much production.

Would be great to get another win or two in these last few weeks.

[rocki]

If nothing else, the conference slate has been fun to watch compared to prior years getting our tails kicked in.  We're a few defensive stops/turnovers away from being 4-1 in the league and playing for something special.  The defense is a catastrophe week in and week out even in the games we've won.  Not sure what the issue is but it seems we have very few playmakers on that side and holdovers like Smith, De La Cruz, Coleman, Henry haven't done anything special or had much production.

Would be great to get another win or two in these last few weeks.

 

I know Smith and DeLaCruz have been banged up over the year, so I imagine that has put a major dent into the defense. Not sure about the rest, but I sure get tired of seeing an opponent's receiver standing right in the middle of the field with no one around him - ones I particularly remember were twice at Lindenwood, and at least once at EIU.

[meganeck]

  VS
Date: 11/9/2024
Time: 1 PM CT
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb
TV: ESPN+
Current Weather Prediction: 57 degrees, 45% chance of showers, ~14 mph wind

TSU's Record: Tennessee State is 6-3 on the season, with a 3-2 conference record. They opened with a 42-21 win over Mississippi Valley State, then traveled to Fargo to lose to NDSU 52-3. They beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41-28 in the Southern Heritage Classic. In the OVC, they lost at Tennessee Tech (24-14), beat Charleston Southern (13-9), beat Lindenwood (24-20), then beat EIU (41-17) at TSU's Homecoming game. They went back out-of-conference for a week, beating Howard University, 27-14, before coming back home and to the OVC, falling to UT Martin (28-21) last weekend.

Comparing common opponents:

• Tennessee Tech - we beat them by 16, TSU lost to them by 10
• Charleston Southern - we beat them by 11, TSU beat them by 4
• Lindenwood - we lost by 11, TSU beat them by 4
• Eastern Illinois - we lost by 7, TSU beat them by 24
• UT Martin - we lost by 28, TSU lost by 7

History: There is none. We have never played Tennessee State in football.

Players to Know:

• Grad QB Draylen Ellis has 231.6 ypg through the air with 15 TDs and 6 INTs. His QB rating is 132.39. He also averages 11.56 ypg on the ground with 1 rushing TD
• Jr WR Karate Brenson leads the team in receiving yards with 74.44 per game and 3 TDs
• Sr WR Jalal Dean has 53.22 ypg receiving, but also 5 TDs
• Jr RB Jaden McGill leads the team in rushing yards with 31.78 per game and 1 TD.
• Sr LB Ahmad Nelson leads the team in tackles with 57 (38 solo) and has 1 forced fumble
• Grad DL Keandre Booker has 6.5 sacks in his 10.5 tackles for loss and has 1 forced fumble
• Jr DB Boogie Trotter has 39 tackles (27 solo), but also 3 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries
• SR RB CJ Evans gets a few yards on the ground on offense (23.44 per game) and has 2 rushing TDs, but also averages 44.38 yards per kickoff return with 2 return TDs and picked up the BS/OVC Special Teams Player of the Week award after throwing down a 98-yard kickoff return for TD last weekend against UT Martin.

Local-ish Players on Their Roster:

• WR Karate Brenson and WR Malik Billingsley are both from Christian Brothers College HS in St. Louis, MO
• RB Jaden McGill is from Naperville Central HS and spent time at the College of DuPage
• DB Dominique Dixon is from Cardinal Ritter College Prep in St. Louis
• OL Darien Farmer is from West Aurora HS in Auroura, IL

Predictions: Our ratings took a pretty big hit after losing to EIU last weekend. I know Massey had us losing by 4, but I still thought we had a solid chance to take this one. I'd say we do still stand a chance in two of our final three games, but to do that, our defense has to step up and make a few stops. Massey says TSU has a 55% chance of winning, with a predicted score of 34-31, which is almost exactly what they said about our game with EIU: https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=940319173

In conference games, we have the #3 offense in the BS/OVC putting up 32.2 points per game. TSU, however, has the #1 defense, allowing only 19.6 points per game.
On the other side of the ball, we have the #8 defense allowing 36 points per game, and TSU has the #8 offense, putting up only 22.6 points per game.
So, really this is a game of strength vs strength, and weakness vs weakness. Their strongest feature is their pass defense, whereas ours is our passing game.
Like the EIU or Lindenwood games...if our defense can come up with a few stops, we can win. We also have got to work on stopping their star kickoff returner CJ Evans. He has the potential to make a huge play or at the very least, give them great starting field position, every time he's back for a kickoff.

 

In case anyone doesn't know Tenn St is coached by former NFL Running Back Eddie George

[leatherneckcountry]

Well looks like the weather is going to be pretty crappy today which is concerning because of our lack of a running game.

[wiu712]

Radio for today's game:
98.1, WILP-FM:  Cuba, IL
98.5, WLSB-FM:  Augusta, IL
 

[rocki]

Oh, dear, this is painful.