Massey Ratings & Score Projections

[ST_Lawson]

Here's the updated Massey Ratings and Score Projections. For future games, I've included (in parentheses) the % chance from last week, to show increase/decrease in winning chance over the previous week.

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)

Future Games:

at North Dakota St., 19% chance (down from 22%), projected score 34-21
at Indiana State, 53% chance (down from 60%), projected score 28-26
vs South Dakota St. 36% chance (down from 42%), projected score 28-23

So, projected one more win (against ISUb) and a record of 5-6 overall, 4-4 in the conference. We essentially have to win out to make the playoffs (barring crazy scenarios).

[Lakesbison]

you will beat SDSU & IND ST I predict, but not NDSU

6-5 would be a great season for WIU & a better one in 2016

[ST_Lawson]

I'm just going to put the remaining week's Massey Ratings and Score Projections in 1 thread, rather than having a different one each week.
So, here's where things stand:

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)
at North Dakota St., 19% chance (projected score 34-21, 13pt spread), we lost 59-7 (52pt spread)

Future Games:
at Indiana State, 55% chance (up from 53%), projected score 31-28
vs South Dakota St. 33% chance (down from 36%), projected score 27-21

Despite us losing so badly, the fact that ISUb lost by nearly the same score to a team that we already beat ended up pushing our chance of victory a little higher.
But, our loss and SDSU's close win over ISUr dropped our chances of winning that game a bit.

[ST_Lawson]

Final week of Massey Ratings and predictions:

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)
at North Dakota St., 19% chance (projected 34-21, 13pt spread), we lost 59-7 (52pt spread)
at Indiana State, 55% chance (projected 31-28), we won (in OT) 37-30 (7pt spread), although it was 30-30 at the end of regulation, so I think that prediction was pretty darn close

Future Game:
vs South Dakota St. 34% chance (up from 33%), projected score 29-23

One more game, one more chance to win. It's possible...we went into UNI with lower odds...but it won't be easy.

[ST_Lawson]

Ok, apparently that wasn't the final week of Massey Ratings and predictions...so, here's where we're at now. I'll just keep doing these until the end of the season.

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)
@ North Dakota St., 19% chance (projected 34-21, 13pt spread), we lost 59-7 (52pt spread)
@ Indiana State, 55% chance (projected 31-28) - we won (in OT) 37-30 (7pt spread), although it was 30-30 at the end of regulation, so I think that prediction was pretty darn close
vs South Dakota St., 34% chance (projected 29-23) - we won (in 2OT) 30-24
@ Dayton (Playoffs), 87% chance (projected 34-17), we won 24-7

Future Game:
@ Illinois State (Playoffs), 21% chance (projected score of 35-24)

We've beaten the odds a couple of times this season...maybe we can do it again.