WIU vs Northern Iowa (10/27/2018)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Game Time: 1:00 PM on Saturday, October 27th
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb
Weather:


TV/Radio:
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: WRMS 94.3 (Beardstown), WJEQ 102.7 (Macomb)
Streaming Audio - wrmsfm.com, WRMS on Tunein.com

About the Panthers
Northern Iowa started the season with losses at Montana and at Iowa. They then shut out Hampton and Indiana State in back-to-back weeks. North Dakota State pulled away from them in the 4th quarter to hand them another loss. They then won at South Dakota by 14 and hosted South Dakota State for their Homecoming, holding the Jackrabbits to 3 field goals in the game and winning 24-9.
UNI has had a strong defense, especially the last few weeks. In general, they have better numbers against the run game than the passing game, but on offense, their passing game is their strength. LBs Chris Kolarevic and Duncan Ferch lead the Panthers in tackles and are #2 and 5 in the MVFC with 10.8 and 9.7 per game, respectively. Ferch is also tied with our own Justin Fitzpatrick with 10 passes defended. DB Xavior Williams averages 1 INT every other game and has 1 returned for TD. QB Eli Dunne throws for 203.43 yards per game with 13 TDs and 2 INTs. WRs Briley Moore and Deion McShane (younger brother of Steve McShane) both average between 51 and 54 ypg with 26-27 catches and have 3 and 2 receiving TDs. WR Nick Fossey only gets ~21.6 ypg but also has 3 receiving TDs. On the ground, it's RB Trevor Allen with 62 ypg and 4 TDs, while RB Marcus Weymiller has 58 ypg and 3 TDs. The Panthers are averaging 30.14 points per game and are allowing 22.43 points to opponents.

Series History: WIU has played UNI 46 times with the Panthers holding the 31-15 series lead. WIU won last year's matchup in Cedar Falls, 38-29 (although those of you who were there or were watching might remember that 13 of those points came in the last 6 seconds of the game).

Common Opponents:
Using transitive property to compare teams can be tricky (or outright pointless), but now that we're nearing the end of the season, it starts to get a little bit more relevant. To that end, here's who both UNI and WIU have played this season and the results...
UNI lost at Montana, 26-23, in Week 1; WIU beat Montana, 31-27, in Week 3
UNI lost at North Dakota State, 56-31, in Week 6; WIU lost against NDSU, 34-7, in Week 7

Predictions:
Massey - 27-21 UNI win
CompughterRatings.com - 30-18 UNI win
Sagarin - 4 point UNI win

Rankings:
Sagarin (out of all DI teams): UNI 74, WIU 131
Massey Ratings: UNI 4, WIU 17
STATS FCS: UNI 17, WIU ORV

My Take
WIU is pretty much in "win out or no playoffs" situation already. UNI can reasonably handle one more loss before worrying about staying home. I'm not too worried about the UNI offense...they're pretty good, but our defense has been playing really well lately. The other side of the ball though...we need to keep doing what we were (mostly) doing against Missouri State, but figure out a way to do it against a much better defense. Our O-line is getting better, but I feel like I need to see a solid running game against a Top 25 team before I feel real comfortable about it. I liked how it didn't seem like McGuire had to just throw the ball around and try to make things happen this last week, although he had trouble getting the ball to some of the receivers. It also felt like our playcalling got a bit weird once we got in the red zone...like, we'd abandon the things that had worked and start trying some trick plays and odd things. I'm hoping they're able to get that stuff worked out a bit before taking on UNI. Maybe it's me being too optimistic, but I think if we really start to put things together, we can come away with a 7-point win in this. I'd say 28-21 Leathernecks.

[GV Dad]

I really think this matchup favors WIU. QBs that can run and pass tend to bother our D. The UNI QB can be a statue, so I think Swenson and Saunders are going to punish him a little. I look for a few turnovers in the game do to pressure on the QB, which will give the offense some short fields. Also, look for a little let down from UNI after the emotional HC win last week over SDSU. I think in the end, Western does enough to win. WIU 31 UNI 17.

[sealhall74]

Wehmiller in wildcat scares the living crap out of me. Need to prepare and clamp down on that for sure.

[ST_Lawson]

[letsgonecks]

Winnable game against a good opponent. Our defense should give us a chance to win as long as the offense/special teams doesn't give up points or put us in too many tough spots.......like they've done this year.

We've given up blocked punt for 7, blocked pat for 2, 2 kick returns for 14, pick for 7, and fumble for 7. That is 37 points the defense is not responsible for.

Other short fields for the D.
MSU: 4 plays 4 yards - 47 yard FG
MSU: 3 plays 30 yards - TD
MSU: 4 plays 8 yards - 35 yard FG
IL: 4 plays 45 yards - TD
IL: 2 plays 3 yards - TD
Mont: 4 plays 6 yards - 31 yard FG
Mont: 7 plays 50 yards - TD
ISU: 7 plays 46 yards - TD
ISU: 6 plays 52 yards - TD
ISU: 7 plays 25 yards - TD
NDSU: 7 plays 21 yards - 24 FG
NDSU: 1 play 15 yards - TD

I get a few of these are late 4th quarters turnover on downs, but there have been a ton of tough spots the D has been put in, so limit this and we win the game. Hope to not jinx them, but the longest play from scrimmage they've given up is a 38 yard rush by IL. Longest pass was 31 by Montana and neither of the 2 went for scores.

A little running to keep them honest, but an efficient pass game and our D playing like they've been and we get the W.

[GV Dad]

Winnable game against a good opponent. Our defense should give us a chance to win as long as the offense/special teams doesn't give up points or put us in too many tough spots.......like they've done this year.

We've given up blocked punt for 7, blocked pat for 2, 2 kick returns for 14, pick for 7, and fumble for 7. That is 37 points the defense is not responsible for.

Other short fields for the D.
MSU: 4 plays 4 yards - 47 yard FG
MSU: 3 plays 30 yards - TD
MSU: 4 plays 8 yards - 35 yard FG
IL: 4 plays 45 yards - TD
IL: 3 plays 8 yards - TD
IL: 2 plays 3 yards - TD
Mont: 4 plays 6 yards - 31 yard FG
Mont: 7 plays 50 yards - TD
ISU: 7 plays 46 yards - TD
ISU: 6 plays 52 yards - TD
ISU: 7 plays 25 yards - TD
NDSU: 7 plays 21 yards - 24 FG
NDSU: 1 play 15 yards - TD

I get a few of these are late 4th quarters turnover on downs, but there have been a ton of tough spots the D has been put in, so limit this and we win the game. Hope to not ginx them, but the longest play from scrimmage they've given up is a 38 yard rush by IL. Longest pass was 31 by Montana and neither of the 2 went for scores.

A little running to keep them honest, but an efficient pass game and our D playing like they've been and we get the W.

Agreed, we have to keep the mistakes limited. Thanks for the well researched post, but I got a little sick to my stomach seeing all those points off miscues

[GV Dad]

Winnable game against a good opponent. Our defense should give us a chance to win as long as the offense/special teams doesn't give up points or put us in too many tough spots.......like they've done this year.

We've given up blocked punt for 7, blocked pat for 2, 2 kick returns for 14, pick for 7, and fumble for 7. That is 37 points the defense is not responsible for.

Other short fields for the D.
MSU: 4 plays 4 yards - 47 yard FG
MSU: 3 plays 30 yards - TD
MSU: 4 plays 8 yards - 35 yard FG
IL: 4 plays 45 yards - TD
IL: 3 plays 8 yards - TD
IL: 2 plays 3 yards - TD
Mont: 4 plays 6 yards - 31 yard FG
Mont: 7 plays 50 yards - TD
ISU: 7 plays 46 yards - TD
ISU: 6 plays 52 yards - TD
ISU: 7 plays 25 yards - TD
NDSU: 7 plays 21 yards - 24 FG
NDSU: 1 play 15 yards - TD

I get a few of these are late 4th quarters turnover on downs, but there have been a ton of tough spots the D has been put in, so limit this and we win the game. Hope to not ginx them, but the longest play from scrimmage they've given up is a 38 yard rush by IL. Longest pass was 31 by Montana and neither of the 2 went for scores.

A little running to keep them honest, but an efficient pass game and our D playing like they've been and we get the W.

Agreed, we have to keep the mistakes limited. Thanks for the well researched post, but I got a little sick to my stomach seeing all those points off miscues

Spent some time this morning looking at stats on the MVFC site. Aside from returns, where WIU is 3rd in the conf in both Punt and KO returns, our Special teams is horrendous. Last in both Kick cover and PATs. 8th in both Punt cover and FGs. Not sure how, as SP teams has never been my thing, but it needs to be addressed now.

Also, Sean leads the Conf with 10 INTs in 7 games. I know our OL has not been good, until last week at MSU, but I think Sean would tell you that number is way too high. Especially from a SR QB. That being said, he's also 2nd in yds per game and leads the Conf in TD passes, so he's not all bad

I still say we get it done this weekend. Neither O has shown they can run, 8th and 9th in the Conf. Both D have shown they can stop the run, 3rd and 4th in the Conf. Both Os have shown they can pass, also 3 and 4. But, only WIUs D has shown they can defend the pass. 3rd in the Conf, as opposed to 9th in the Conf for UNI. I still think WIU 31 UNI 17 is a good prediction. Just have to limit the mistakes.

[sealhall74]

A picture is worth a 1000 words. Offense and Special Teams have not been good this year but I still think we win this weekend. Riding the big MO from the Mo St game into Dad's Weekend at home. I feel good about this one. Try out the Week 9 matchups link on this sheet. I added the Vermont Fall Color motif into the stat category filter. Yea, I know, too much time on my hands. That and the handyman helping me with my deck (actually he is doing 90% of the work) is not here today.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

[ST_Lawson]

Giveaways...free to enter and easy for students to pick up raffle tickets. Must be present to win.
Will it work?....idk, but at least they're trying some things.

[Neckfansince71]

Well what do you know? We now have a marketing department that is marketing the "Purple and Gold!" Keep the "ball rolling!" jc