WIU vs South Dakota (10/10/2015)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Family Weekend
Kickoff: 3:00 PM
Weather Forecast (as of 10/5): 67 degrees, clear and sunny, 46% humidity, 0% chance of precipitation, 9 mph WSW wind (another beautiful day for football)
Entertainment: Friday night will be the comedian Sinbad (returning to) Western Hall and Saturday at tailgating will be Dennis DeYoung and the Music of Styx starting at 12:30 PM.

South Dakota comes to Hanson Field for Family Weekend next Saturday. USD is currently sitting at 2-2 (same as Western) with a 34 point shutout loss of to a FBS G5 team (K-State), a 27-17 win over UC Davis, a 52-0 demolishing of Drake, and then a 31-3 loss at home against Youngstown state to open conference play.

On the offense, USD relies more on a rushing attack (185.8 yards per game & 7 TDs) than they do with passing (160.2 yards per game & 3 TDs).
Their lead rusher is Junior Trevor Bouma who averages 82.2 yards per game, 7.0 per attempt, and has 5 TDs through 4 games (although he apparently left the game against YSU with a high ankle sprain, don't know his status for this weekend).
Receiving-wise, they have two primary targets, Senior Eric Shufford and Sophomore Brandt Van Roekel. Shufford catches for 34 yards per game (10.5 per catch) and 1 TD, and Van Roekel has 35.2 yards per game (17.6 per catch) and 1 TD.
The QB, Junior Ryan Saeger, has 50 completions on 96 attempts, with 2 INTs and 3 TDs. He's passed for an average of 154.5 yards per game, which works out to a 112.3 efficiency.

For comparison to Western's "equivalent" personnel:
RB Nikko Watson - 165 rushing yards per game, 5.9 per attempt, 4 TDs through 2 games
WR Lance Lenoir - 90 receiving yards per game, 13.85 per catch, 1 TD
WR Joey Borsellino - 49.75 receiving yards per game, 10.47 per catch, 1 TD
WR Stacey Smith - 38.25 receiving yards per game, 19.13 per catch, 2 TD
QB Trenton Norvell - 76 completions, 137 attempts, 5 INTs, 5 TDs, 230 YPG, 116.63 efficiency

On Defense they've got a few players that all seem to have a decent number of tackles:
Junior LB John Wessel - 25 tackles (15 solo), 1/2 tackle for loss
Junior DB Jacob Warner - 24 tackles (16 solo), 3 INTs
Senior LB Keyen Lage - 23 tackles (16 solo), 1 1/5 tackles for loss
Junior DB Tyson Graham - 22 tackles (15 solo)
Also making waves is R-Freshman DL Andrew Van Ginkel with 21 tackles (16 solo), 8 1/2 tackles for loss for 39 yards including 5 sacks. He's currently listed near the top of the FCS Frosh Player of the Year Watch List.

On Special Teams:
Field Goals - Junior Kicker/Punter Miles Bergner is 4 for 9, 3-4 in the 30-39 range, 1-3 in the 40-49 range and 0-2 in the 50+ range with a long of 45
XPs - Bergner is 10-10 on XP attempts
Punting - Bergner is averaging 42.1 yards per kick on 23 kicks with 2 touchbacks, 9 inside the 20, and 1 blocked
Kickoffs - Bergner is averaging 63.1 yards per kickoff with 9 TBs and 1 out of bounds

Categories that USD is ranked high (top 25) the FCS in:
First Downs Defense (t-20th)
Passes Had Intercepted (t-13th) - 2 passes
Passes Intercepted (11th) - 7 INTs
Passing Yards Allowed (24th) - 176.3
Red Zone Defense (20th)
Red Zone Offense (t-22nd)
Scoring Defense (24th)
Tackles for Loss Allowed (8th) - 3.75
Team Passing Efficiency Defense (5th) - 95.5
Total Defense (16th) - 303.5 yards
Turnovers Gained (t-20th) - 10
South Dakota Ranking Summary

Categories that WIU is ranked high (top 25) in the FCS in:
Blocked Punts (9th) - 1
Fumbles Recovered (2nd) - 7
Red Zone Offense (t-16th)
Sacks Allowed (7th) - 0.5
Turnover Margin (21st) - +1.0
Turnovers Gained (t-6th) - 12
Also, Brett Taylor currently has a tie for 1st in the FCS for Fumbles Recovered with 3 and Lance Lenior is 12th in the FCS (1st in the conference) for All Purpose yards.
Western Ranking Summary

Sagarin Rankings has Western listed at 128th in Division I, with South Dakota at 153rd.

Massey currently has us listed as about a 15 point favorite in this game (most likely score, 28-13), so it's obviously a "winnable" game...however, this is the MVFC...you DO NOT underestimate a MVFC opponent. Any team in the conference can surprise any other team (just look at NDSU the last 4 years...4 national championship victories, only 3 losses...but who were those losses against...not the Big 10 teams, not the Big 12 teams...it was Youngstown State, Indiana State, and Northern Iowa). Coach Nielson is well aware of this though, and I'm sure he'll have the guys ready. What I'm really looking for this game is special teams finally stepping up...I hope (isn't that what we're all hoping at this point), and not allowing any blocked kicks or long kick returns.

Personally, I think we put up a few more points than Massey thinks, but we also allow a bit more. I'm guessing something closer to 35-17 victory over USD and a 2-0 start in the conference.

[lovethenecks]

South Dakota will not will another game this year unless they play at home against Missouri State. IF we win by 20 or more we will think we are going to playoffs, BLAH, BLAH,BLAH. Best thing that happens is we improve slightly from last game and win by 10 or less, and no injuries. Last Win if 2015, if we don't improve in all 3 facets of game.

[ST_Lawson]

South Dakota will not will another game this year unless they play at home against Missouri State. IF we win by 20 or more we will think we are going to playoffs, BLAH, BLAH,BLAH. Best thing that happens is we improve slightly from last game and win by 10 or less, and no injuries. Last Win if 2015, if we don't improve in all 3 facets of game.

They do play at home vs Missouri State, October 24th. You're right though, I don't see USD beating anyone besides MSU the rest of the year. Their other best chances are against us next week and at home against SIU on November 7th, but really, both of those games depend on which team shows up to play...both us and SIU are pretty "up and down" this year so far.

I still see us taking USD and Indiana State. I don't know about the rest. YSU looks like they might be better than I thought they were, but still not sure. I don't think wins against ISUr, NDSU, or SDSU are likely unless we improve drastically or they happen to have a crazy bad game. UNI is, I think, slightly more likely than those three, but still would be a pretty tough game.

Massey currently has the following % odds for us (as well as what they projected for previous games):
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance of winning - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance of winning - we lost 34-27 (Massey projected 32-26)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance of winning - we won 37-36 (Massey projected 27-24)

The rest of the games:
vs South Dakota, 85% chance, projected score 28-13
@ Northern Iowa, 24% chance, projected score 27-17
@ Illinois State, 19% chance, projected score 34-24
vs Youngstown State, 49% chance, projected score 25-24
at North Dakota St., 10% chance, projected score 34-14
at Indiana State, 47% chance, projected score 30-28
vs South Dakota St. 43% chance, projected score 31-28

So actually, I see USD as a win, YSU, ISUb as "tossups", and SDSU as "winnable". The rest....it'd take a pretty strong effort.

[WIU0812]

35 -14 WIU

[ST_Lawson]

USD's message board just started their thread regarding next weekend's game. Available here: http://usdcoyotesports.proboards.com/th ... n-illinois

[ST_Lawson]

Quick note, 5dimes has us currently a 9 point favorite, over/under of 43. So, they're essentially predicting 26-17 victory for Western.

[sealhall74]

USD 52 WIU 13 (it worked last time and I am sticking with it)

Pirates 9 Cubs 2 (consistency is a virtue in life)

[WIU0812]

I am wondering if this is the game that Norvell can get into a groove and use this as a game to work on mechanics. I like the long shots down field, but I feel as though he needs to get better at going through his progression and the interception rate will drop. He needs to get a few 0 interception games going because he is giving up as much as he is scoring. Other than that I see another strong run game coming and hopefully they try something new on special teams because obviously what we have going is not working. I will be unable to watch game due to a wedding, but will be trying to follow on phone when I can.

[sealhall74]

I am still trying to figure out our offense. We tend to come out of the gate at both start of game and after half looking like world beaters on offense with a nice mix of run and pass. If it works and we get ahead, we change course (maybe because the defense adjusted) to very conservative run play calls and when they don't work, we are forced to go long pass mode because we are off schedule. Spent some time reviewing game against SIU last night. In the entire first half, I documented only about 5 basic QB/RB formations (I did not explore receiver setups). So what do we do at start of 2nd half against SIU? A designed run play for Norvell that went for about 15 yards (that was there for the taking throughout first half). No doubt that probably opened up the passing game a little after that and we exploited it pretty well.

BTW, I also went over to ESPN3 and watched a replay of Bison against SDSU. I documented 8 QB/RB formations in their first drive alone and they had a couple or three run options off some of them. They do not do anything fancy (aside from having a lot of guys in motion) and if you sell out on the run like we did last year you can probably stick with them as long as Wentz is not having one of the days or nights like he did against the Jacks when everything he threw was exactly where it needed to be.

So in summary, there are two ways to win a football game: 1) Rely on the "surprise factor" at key times during the game or 2) throw the "kitchen sink" at them to wear them down mentally and physically. I have a feeling that we will be using the former against the Yotes on Saturday because that is probably all that is needed. IMO, one of the downsides of not throwing "kitchen sink" at teams early in a season is that when push comes to shove later in the season, your guys just might not have the reps and confidence under their belt to execute the stuff when it really matters with loud road crowds, etc.

[letsgonecks]

I agree 0812, we need Norvell to limit the picks down this tough stretch to win.....along with many other things.

Both picks could have not even taken place. On the pick six drive, Lenoir caught a ball in stride that looked to be headed for a score, but somehow lost his footing 3 strides in. Then Norvell forced a pass he should've went the other way with or at least faked the WR screen to Nikko to draw the safety over a step or two. Instead he forced it and the safety took it to the house.

Second pick was on fourth and forced to keep the drive alive, but again shouldn't have happened. A few plays earlier, SIU blew a coverage and Lenoir was all alone. Norvell's pass sailed, which could have been because of the wind and a bit of pressure, but a decent throw and it would have been 6. To boot, Lance made a ridiculous catch on it and was called out. Replay shows it was likely a catch, but live it looked as though there was no way to make the catch and stay in.

Looking to see my first live WIU win since 2010 when we spank UNI. WIU 38 - USD 17