WIU at Northern Iowa (10/17/2015)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

UNI's Homecoming
Kickoff: 4:00 PM (Central)
Weather Forecast (as of 10/12): Doesn't really matter since it's in the dome, but if you're driving and/or tailgating up at UNI before the game, then Saturday afternoon at Cedar Falls should be right around 51 degrees and sunny with low humidity. Inside the dome...as always, no wind, 72 degrees.
TV: CSN Chicago & ESPN3

Northern Iowa is currently 2-3, although they've had a very difficult schedule so far. UNI started the season with a 31-7 loss to Iowa State (FBS, Big 12), and then beat a couple of Big Sky teams, Eastern Washington (38-35) and Cal Poly (34-20). After the nearly conference-wide bye week, they then had to go down to Illinois State (losing 21-13) and up to North Dakota State (losing 31-28). I think that just about every FCS team, if asked to go on the road and play last year's two national championship game teams back to back, would be 0-2 for that stretch.

UNI competed very closely with NDSU, going up 14-3 at one point in the second quarter and holding a 14-10 lead at halftime. 5 lead changes in the 4th led to a 3-pt victory for the Bison, but proved that the Panthers can put points up against just about anyone.

UNI is strong on the defensive side, leading the league in sacks and tackles for loss. They also lead the league in Red Zone Defense and are second in Passes Intercepted and Fumbles Recovered (Western is #1 in fumbles recovered). Offensively, they've been somewhat up and down, only putting up 13 against ISUr, but running neck and neck with NDSU eventually putting up 28 points. For the most part, it looks like we have a better offense (having Watson back has really helped get things firing on all cylinders), but UNI has the better defense. We have a better kick return game, but they have better special teams defense. They've blocked 1 kick and 1 punt so far this year, so I'm still worried about our ability to stop that from happening, especially if their defense forces a few more punts than USD's defense did. If you're interested, you can view the full stat ranking comparison here.

I just noticed that UNI had the STATS Defensive Player of the Week and the MVFC Defensive player of the week with an outstanding performance from their LB Brett McMakin last week. He had a bunch of tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 interception. We've been doing pretty well on the turnover margin so far, but we'll definitely have to watch out for him.

Also, there's been some questions with the QB position at UNI, with Sr. Sawyer Kollmorgen having concussion issues and Jr. Aaron Bailey being put in during the game last week. Kollmorgen is apparently still going through the concussion evaluation process, although I believe that I saw someone say that this is his 3rd concussion. Unclear at this point who will be the starter for Saturday, but I'm leaning towards Bailey.

I'd love to see myself proved wrong, since a win would put us in the top 25 of the major FCS polls for the first time since (I think) 2010...but I think the loud homecoming crowd for UNI will help the Panthers to a narrow 3 point victory...score of 27-24.

[ST_Lawson]

Trying a new thing with the weekly game posts, making them sticky (at the top of the subforum) until after the game is over. Might help visibility.

[huskie]

I think this game against UNI will give the Leatherneck fan base a true indication of who this football team really is. My gut feeling is WIU will win 34 to 28. UNI loosing two straight conference games against the best teams in the conference will put to much pressure on the Panthers who can't afford to drop to 0 and 3. WIU will play loose and with confidence since they have nothing to loose.

[rocki]

Hope you're right, huskie. I am getting a not-so-good vibe about this one. The combo of Homecoming and the noise in the dome are a couple of reasons why. If Norvell can keep spreading the passes around like he did last week, it will be a good one. If he focuses on Lenoir alone, they could get shut down fast. Special teams are still a concern for me, too.

Here's to proving me wrong, 'Necks. Bring in the stellar offense and defense and show me some more stuff that you've been keeping secret. I am so ready for this team to really shine!

[ST_Lawson]

Hope you're right, huskie. I am getting a not-so-good vibe about this one. The combo of Homecoming and the noise in the dome are a couple of reasons why. If Norvell can keep spreading the passes around like he did last week, it will be a good one. If he focuses on Lenoir alone, they could get shut down fast. Special teams are still a concern for me, too.

Here's to proving me wrong, 'Necks. Bring in the stellar offense and defense and show me some more stuff that you've been keeping secret. I am so ready for this team to really shine!

I definitely agree on that point (spreading the passes around). Of course Lenoir is the #1 receiver, but it seems like the offense really clicks when Norvell can get passes to a range of guys.
As the offense has improved over the past few games, catches have proportionately been spread around more, with some of the other WR and secondary targets getting more catches. This is likely because teams will put their best defenders on Lenoir, hoping to stop the big plays, thus freeing up some of the other guys for catches.

I'm also interested to see if they (or anyone this season) is able to hold Watson to under 100 yards in a game. Watson is currently averaging 156.3 yards per game, which would put him at #2 currently in the FCS for yards per game (although he's not ranked right now because you have to have played in 75% of the team's games, so he won't actually show up on the list until after game 8, having played in 6 of them at that point).

I really hope that everything really comes together...offense moves the ball well, defense picks up some more turnovers, no mistakes on the special teams side of things. Of course this is a game that we can win if we play our best, and UNI has had some struggles lately, but they are still a very tough team, at home, on homecoming, and are favored in this game. It's gonna take a solid effort by all aspects to win this one.

[lovethenecks]

I have analyzed the game for this week, and as reminder I have been right on all games so far this year with my predictions. Major factors in this game are the aggressiveness of how Northern will play, I can see them blitzing a lot, going for every punt block, making us try to beat them with the pass and taking away the run. Tough place to play, loud and fast. Realistic Score: Northern 34 WIU 22

[letsgonecks]

This game is winnable and same goes for the remaining schedule, but the odds are not in our favor and that goes the rest of the way out. As everyone knows this team will have to be solid in all three phases to get wins down the stretch. We can move the ball with the best of them, we can play a high enough level of defense to win, but these games will come down to special teams and that is what scares me.

So here goes. We win if there are no miscues on special teams; blocked punts, shanked punts deep in our territory, blocked FGs, giving up long kick returns and no fumbles on our returns. Some big plays from our units would be nice, but I'm simply crossing my fingers for a quiet day of Special Teams.

OK, so maybe we don't automatically win with clean special teams, but can't win without it. We do need Norvell to play at a high level like he's capable and Nikko to open things up and wear them down. Protection will be key as I believe they are the conference leader in sacks and have some beasts. Beasts like McMakin, Schult and Ales who seem to live in the opponents backfield (10.5 sacks/25 TFL combined). Good news is we've given up the fewest sacks (2) and Nikko rarely gets tackled for a loss and only gives up 18, 15 and -18 lbs to the guys mentioned above.

Can the D contain Bailey? I think so, but we'll have to have someone spy and think Nichols is perfect for the job now that he's running with the LB's.

No SP miscues, a lot of Nikko and a lot of Nichols and we WIN 24-17. Probably wouldn’t bet money on this game, but with hopes and dreams…….I’m all in!!!!!

[sealhall74]

Realistically, after looking at their schedule, if we can knock them off in this game, the Panthers will be turning their attention to basketball in about 10 days.
I am not even sure this would be a true upset. Massey Composite has us at #13 and them at #14 (http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm). Look at their standard deviation in that poll - HUGE - they are a tough nut to predict:

Get up on 'em early.
Watch 'em get squirrely.

[wiu712]

Game preview as seen on WGEM Sports with Ben Marth:
http://www.wgem.com/story/30274244/2015 ... mvfc-start

[wiu712]

Just noticed that the game will be televised by Comcast Sports Net-Chicago.