WIU vs Youngstown State (10/31/2015)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Date/Time: 10/31 (Halloween) at 1 PM (Central)
Weather Forecast (as of 10/29): 51 degrees (high of 53 for the day), rain overnight and through the morning and early afternoon, ~78% chance of rain at kickoff
TV: ESPN3/WatchESPN.com

YSU's Record
YSU is 3-4 overall, 1-3 in the conference. Previous games include a 45-37 loss to FBS Pitt, 21-14 win over Robert Morris (NEC), 48-3 win over St. Francis (NEC), 31-3 win over South Dakota, 31-29 loss to Illinois State, 38-8 loss to South Dakota State, 38-31 OT loss to Southern Illinois.
Games on their schedule after this week are back home against Missouri State, North Dakota State, then on the road against Indiana State to finish the season.

The History
Western has played Youngstown State 30 times going back to 1969. YSU currently holds the advantage in the overall series, having won 18 and lost 12. The last meeting between the two teams was a Western 30-24 victory at Youngstown last year.

Key Players
Not going to do the extended player comparison like last week, just going to point out some of the key players for the Penguins. All stats listed are for all 7 games unless stated otherwise.
QB Hunter Wells (Sophomore) - 54.4% completion rate, 1404 yards passing, 10 TDs and 5 INTs
RB Martin Ruiz (Junior) - 492 yards, 70.3 ypg, 4.1 ypc, 3 TD, 1 fumble
RB Jody Webb (Junior) - 489 yards, 69.9 ypg, 5.4 ypc, 4 TD, 2 fumbles; also handles most kick returns and has 5 returns with a 24.8 yards per return average
WR Andrew Williams (Senior) - 428 yards, 61.1 ypg, 17.1 ypc, 3 TDs
WR Andre Stubbs (Senior) - 298 yards, 42.6 ypg, 11.5 ypc, 1 TD; also handles most punt returns and has 13 returns with a 10.2 yards per return average
SS LeRoy Alexander (Junior) - 47 tackles (25 solo), 2.5 tackles for loss (1 sack), 1 fumble recovery, 3 interceptions
FS Jameel Smith (Junior) - 6 games played, 36 tackles (22 solo), 3 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble
DE Derek Rivers (Junior) - 36 tackles (27 solo), 11.5 tackles for loss (5 sacks), 1 forced fumble (also now holds the YSU Career Sacks record with 20.5 total sacks, is on the STATS Defensive Player of the Year Watch-list, and was a 3rd team preseason all-american)
Coaching Staff - a couple of "big names" in the coaching staff, led by HC Bo Pelini (7 years as HC at Nebraska with a 67-27 overall record and never finishing worse than 9-4 in a season). Co-Defensive Coordinator is Ron Stoops, Jr of the Stoops coaching family (brother of Oklahoma HC Bob Stoops, Kentucky HC Mark Stoops, and Oklahoma DC Mike Stoops).

Stat Ranking Analysis
Full Stat Ranking Comparison
Some key points:

• Like ISU, YSU doesn't make a lot of mistakes...6th in the FCS for fewest penalties
• YSU doesn't give up a lot of passing yards...currently 2nd in the FCS (118.4 per game), but a lot of that can be chalked up to the bad weather they've had for a couple of their games.
• Despite last week at ISU, WIU is still in the top 10 in FCS in fewest sacks allowed
• Western is 7th in the FCS in turnovers gained (with 17), YSU is 103rd (with 8)
• Overall turnover margin, WIU is 19th in the FCS (+.71 per game), YSU is 69th in the FCS (-.14 per game)
• YSU is 123rd on kickoff returns, so hopefully we'll be able to do better about preventing any big plays on kick returns.

YSU's fans (at least on their message board) are pretty down on their team this year. Most aren't thinking they'll have much of a shot at this game. I think it'll be fairly close, but we'll be able to grind out a win...helped by a couple of turnovers in our direction. Massey predicts a 31-27 Western win, but I think if the weather stays as predicted, we'll get a somewhat lower scoring, more running game. My prediction is a 28-21 Leatherneck victory.

[Western_101]

A big part of our game that needs to be addressed is kickoff/kick return.

My guess for the ISU game is they averaged starting on their 32 yard line where as I think we averaged starting on our 17. Big difference is you are going to give the other team a 15 yard advantage to start their drive every time throughout the game.

[ST_Lawson]

A big part of our game that needs to be addressed is kickoff/kick return.

My guess for the ISU game is they averaged starting on their 32 yard line where as I think we averaged starting on our 17. Big difference is you are going to give the other team a 15 yard advantage to start their drive every time throughout the game.

It's true we need to handle kick returns much better on both sides, but I think the biggest difference for ISU was just that they were able to make the big plays.

EDIT...moved rest of this post over to ISU game thread, since it doesn't relate so much to the YSU game.

[Western_101]

Question.

Why is it some years we are able to schedule 12 games and some years only 11? Why not make it 12 all the time. It sure would be nice to have another game on the schedule against a Morgan St. or a Missouri State. I feel pretty grumpy that that we don't get to play MSU. Why can't we play all nine teams in the MVFC every year and stick to a 12 game schedule every year?

Oh yeah, I guess we should talk about YSU. I have no idea what to expect with this game. WIU has to make sure they don't fall into their bad habit of collapsing in the 4th quarter. I think if the 'Necks can put together 4 solid quarters and not have any special team break downs they come away with a W. Not going to predict a score. Also if it is wet and raining not sure which team that will effect more adversely. Rain will dramatically reduce attendance at the game which in large part contributes to neutralizing home field advantage.

[WIU0812]

Question.

Why is it some years we are able to schedule 12 games and some years only 11? Why not make it 12 all the time. It sure would be nice to have another game on the schedule against a Morgan St. or a Missouri State. I feel pretty grumpy that that we don't get to play MSU. Why can't we play all nine teams in the MVFC every year and stick to a 12 game schedule every year?

Oh yeah, I guess we should talk about YSU. I have no idea what to expect with this game. WIU has to make sure they don't fall into their bad habit of collapsing in the 4th quarter. I think if the 'Necks can put together 4 solid quarters and not have any special team break downs they come away with a W. Not going to predict a score. Also if it is wet and raining not sure which team that will effect more adversely. Rain will dramatically reduce attendance at the game which in large part contributes to neutralizing home field advantage.

Not sure what YSU back situation looks like, but with our OL and Nikko I would think rain would be an advantage to us unless they are even better at the ground and pound.

[wiu712]

Why is it some years we are able to schedule 12 games and some years only 11?

I think that it all comes down to the calendar. The college football season starts on Labor Day weekend.

In 2014, Labor Day was on September 1. That is the earliest possible date. So our first football game in 2014 was on August 28 (the Thursday of Labor Day weekend).

This year, Labor Day was on September 7. That is the latest possible date. As a result, our first football game was on September 3 (the Thursday of Labor Day weekend).

The later Labor Day in 2015 makes for one less week in the football season.

[Western_101]

ok, then why do FBS schedules always include 12 games?

[letsgonecks]

I love and we need a yearly paycheck from the big schools, but an almost sure win type FCS school would have been nice this year. Assume the W and we're 5-2 with losses to #2 and #3 on the road. Would have to get 2 of 4 remaining and we'd be in, but now the tough task of 3 of 4.

All starts this week to build momentum and erase the daunting task of needing 3 straight. Like most teams in this conference, YSU is very good and would likely be the frontrunner in another league. They're down on their luck like usual and now is a good time to keep them down.

They have some big play ability with a good QB and two solid backs, so I'm hoping we got all the allowing big plays out of our system last week. Looking at a team that came back on Pitt, could have beat ISU and then blew the game last week to SIU. By the way if SIU could go back and change one play a game in their losses they'd be ranked #1 (4 losses by 8 points).

Not as potent as ISU, so think the D steps up this week and if we limit big plays especially to Webb, we win. 35 - 24 (24-17 if it rains hard all day).

[wiu712]

Why do FBS schedules always include 12 games?

FBS teams have two more weeks in their schedules.

In 2015, the last FCS games will be on November 21 as the playoffs will start on November 28.

FBS teams will have games on November 28 and December 5.

[ST_Lawson]

I love and we need a yearly paycheck from the big schools, but an almost sure win type FCS school would have been nice this year. Assume the W and we're 5-2 with losses to #2 and #3 on the road. Would have to get 2 of 4 remaining and we'd be in, but now the tough task of 3 of 4.

All starts this week to build momentum and erase the daunting task of needing 3 straight. Like most teams in this conference, YSU is very good and would likely be the frontrunner in another league. They're down on their luck like usual and now is a good time to keep them down.

They have some big play ability with a good QB and two solid backs, so I'm hoping we got all the allowing big plays out of our system last week. Looking at a team that came back on Pitt, could have beat ISU and then blew the game last week to SIU. By the way if SIU could go back and change one play a game in their losses they'd be ranked #1 (4 losses by 8 points).

Not as potent as ISU, so think the D steps up this week and if we limit big plays especially to Webb, we win. 35 - 24 (24-17 if it rains hard all day).

On the plus side, IF we end up 6-5, and IF the playoff committee decides that there might be reason to include a 6-5 team in the playoffs if there's a good reason to, then we have (as of right now anyway) the toughest schedule of all FCS teams. It's entirely feasible that Eastern could win the OVC auto-bid, which means we'd have a convincing win over another playoff team already. Add in that we play in the toughest conference, and didn't have any "easy" wins this year...there'd be a case for it. Not saying it'd happen...I'd still be on the edge of my seat on selection sunday, but I think if any 6-5 team gets allowed into the playoffs, it would be a team like us. But yea, looking back on things, if instead of the game against Coastal, we'd had another home game against a Pioneer League, MEAC, or SWAC team (or even a lower-rung team from one of the other conferences...Murray State for example) that we likely would have won, then we'd have a much better chance at 7 wins, which would almost assuredly get us in the playoffs.

In other news, looks like they're going to have special helmets for Saturday's "Military Appreciation Day" game:



I don't have anything camo to wear to the game, but I plan on wearing the shirt I got from the Fallen Soldiers 5K run earlier this year.