Massey Ratings & Score Projections - 10/26/2015

[ST_Lawson]

Haven't heard any feedback on this since I've started doing it. What are your thoughts? Do you like it? Is it dumb? Want to see it done differently?
Let me know what you think.

Anyway...

Here's the updated Massey Ratings and Score Projections. For future games, I've included (in parentheses) the % chance from last week, to show increase/decrease in winning chance over the previous week.

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)

Future Games:
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (up from 59%), projected score 31-27
at North Dakota St., 22% chance (down from 25%), projected score 31-21
at Indiana State, 60% chance (no change), projected score 31-28
vs South Dakota St. 42% chance (up from 39%), projected score 27-24

So, still projecting two more wins on the season to finish 6-5 overall and 5-3 in the conference. I'm also liking our chances against South Dakota State. They've started to look vulnerable (lost to UNI and were beat down by NDSU...both at home), and we play them at home...won't be a big crowd, but at least it'll be here. If we can win the games we're "supposed" to win...YSU and ISUb, and pull out a win against either NDSU or SDSU, we'll likely be in the playoffs. But we gotta take care of YSU first.

[sealhall74]

Going 2-2 from here on gets us in if 5 Valley teams get in like last year. If less than 5, we are likely hosed because UNI will probably have a better overall record. I am glad that final game against SDSU is at home. That is our trump card if we need it but it will be difficult because SDSU could very well be playing it to hold on to a bye in first round and a home playoff game.

Correction. We would be a win short of 7 if we go 2-2. We probably do need to play .750 ball from here on to have any chance to get in. But I really have a hard time seeing less than 4 Valley teams getting in.

[ST_Lawson]

For reference, here's how the conference went into the playoffs the last two years (since the playoffs expanded to 24 teams).

2013 - 2 teams (NDSU & SDSU) made it in. 18th ranked and 8-4 overall YSU did not make it in, but is regarded as one of the biggest "mistakes" of the playoff committee over the last few years. The reasoning was that Youngstown had lost the last three games of the season...prior to that they were 8-1 with only a loss to Michigan State. The last three games were against UNI and the two MVFC in the playoffs, NDSU and SDSU.

2014 - 5 teams made it into the playoffs: NDSU, ISUr, UNI, SDSU, and ISUb. ISUb was 8-6 (12-game season) and #19 ranked. ISUb was 4-4 in the conference, but had a slightly better record than the other 4-4 team, YSU. Considering every MVFC team won their first game in the playoffs, I'm hoping that the committee will be equally allowing, if there is again that many good teams in the conference (which it looks like there might end up being).

There's a guy over at AGS who put together the playoff outlook for the conference after this last weekend: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr ... &p=2272970
Essentially what he's got for MVFC playoff teams is:
ISUr - in
SDSU & NDSU - in good shape, but still gotta go .500 for the last 4 games to be in for sure
WIU, ISUb, UNI, USD - bubble teams...we have a "quality win" over UNI and no "bad losses". Technically (according to the official rules) 6 wins does not immediately disqualify you from playoff consideration, but you'd have to have some good looking wins in those 6 and get some help from other "bubble" teams losing, so we really need to win 3 out of the last 4 to be in the playoffs. Out of all the bubble teams, I think we're in the best spot right now, but we need to play very well and finish strong. 7-4 overall and 6-2 in the conference will get us in for sure. Winning 2 out of the 4 gets us 6-5 overall, 5-3 in the conference, which might get us in, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
YSU & SIU - must win out to have a chance
MSU - as the guy who posted it says: "This team might've been out of contention by mid-September".

EDIT - one other thing that does help our chances this year vs previous years if we do happen to end up 6-5 is that starting this year, the MEAC will not be sending their conference champion to the playoffs. They gave up their auto-bid to play the SWAC champion in the new Celebration Bowl, which...considering neither conference ever had much success in the playoffs and that the game will be aired nationally on ABC and the financial payout for both conferences is pretty significant...can't say I blame them for going that route. What it does for us though, is free up one more spot in the playoffs so that one more "bubble" team will end up getting in than would have in the past.