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Date/Time: 11/7 at 2:30 PM
Location: NDSU's 19k seat Fargodome, Fargo, ND
Weather Forecast: Doesn't really matter...in a dome. But, if you do happen to be going to the game and maybe spending some time tailgating beforehand or whatever, Saturday is supposed to be sunny with a high of 45 and about 42 degrees at kickoff.
TV: Like all of our conference games this season, this will be available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com. It will also be aired by NBC North Dakota.
NDSU's Record:
The Bison are 6-2, 4-1 in the conference. They started the season (a week early) with a loss at Montana (38-35) and then followed that up with 4 straight wins against Weber State (41-14), former conference rival North Dakota (34-9), at SDSU (28-7) and back home against UNI (31-28). They then had a surprising home loss to USD (24-21) and then went back on the road to defeat ISUb (28-14) and SIU (35-29). Following our game against them this week, NDSU will travel to YSU and finish out the season back home against MSU.
The History:
Western has played NDSU 6 times going back to 2007 with NDSU holding the advantage, winning 4 out of those 6 games. Oddly enough, we are actually undefeated at the Fargodome with our two wins in '08 and '10 coming up in Fargo. The Bison have won the last two meetings, in '11 and '14, both in Macomb.
Key Players:
Redshirt Freshman QB Easton Stick - With starting QB Carson Wentz down for the season due to injury, R-Fr. QB Easton Stick has stepped up for the two most recent games. Stick isn't quite the passer that Wentz is (not yet, anyway) but he's more of a running threat. In the two games he's started, he's passed for 264 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs. He has also rushed for 254 yards (127 per game) and 2 TDs.
Junior RB King Frazier - has 583 yards and 4 TDs through 8 games (72.9 yards per game). Frazier was the MVFC Offensive player of the week for his game last Saturday where he ran for 177 yards and a TD.
Junior RB Chase Morlock - has run for 208 yards and 4 TDs through 8 games (26.0 yards per game), and also caught 14 passes for 217 yards and 4 TDs
Sophomore WR RJ Urzendowski - 437 receiving yards and 5 TDs through 8 games (54.6 per game)
Senior WR Zach Vraa - 299 receiving yards and 2 TDs through 8 games (37.4 per game)
Junior LB Nick DeLuca - 76 tackles (30 solo), 3.5 for loss, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 5 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble. DeLuca was the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week for his 20 tackle (4 solo) performance that included 1 for loss and 1 pass breakup and helped limit the running ability of SIU QB Mark Iannotti.
Sophomore DE Greg Menard - 36 tackles (12 solo), 9 for loss, 6 sacks, 7 QB hurries and 1 forced fumble
Senior CB CJ Smith - 24 tackles (20 solo), 2 for loss, 1 sack, 2 INTs, 6 pass breakups
Senior P/K Ben LeCompte - leads all of FCS with 46.5 yards per punt (on 40 punts) with a long of 73 yards, 9 TBs and 16 inside the 20. LeCompte also handles kickoffs, averaging 63.5 yards on 47 kicks with 20 TBs and 1 OB.
Stat Analysis:
Full Stat Comparison
In terms of the stat comparison, NDSU is ahead of us in most areas. We do, have better numbers on turnovers, both on fumbles lost by our offense, and on fumbles recovered and interceptions by our defense. From a straight numbers perspective, our offense has put up more yards than NDSU, but overall, they've put up an average of about 5 more points than we have and they give up an average of 8.4 points less than we do.
My View:
NDSU does seem to have lost a step from the last few years. They're not quite the unbeatable monster that they have been in the past 4 years, but even so, they're still a very good and very dangerous team. Their QB is young, but talented, especially when he's on the move, and as I said, their RBs and WRs don't put up huge numbers, but they get the job done and the NDSU defense has been strong enough to keep them in every game, even the two they've lost (by a total of 6 points). We have not been playing very well the last couple of games, but we have historically played well in the Fargodome and probably had our best game of the season in the other dome that we played in this season (defeating UNI 24-19), so we seem to do well in good weather/no weather (indoors). I still feel like our team is a bit better this year than last year and we nearly beat NDSU last year at our place. I think if we're going to win this game though, we have to win the turnover battle and get our offense moving...something that did not happen much of the last game and in the 4th quarter against Illinois State.
If you look at who we've played in common:
Northern Iowa - we won by 5, NDSU won by 3 (+2 for us)
South Dakota - we won by 19, NDSU lost by 3 (+22 for us)
Southern Illinois - we won by 1, NDSU won by 6 (+5 for them)
You'd think that'd give an advantage to us, but I think it's more just the product of the conference being very tough all around (except for MSU). There are obviously favorites in each game, but just about any team can beat just about any other team if a few breaks go one way or the other.
NDSU is playing for their 7th win, which would make them a lock for the playoffs. We are essentially playing a playoff scenario now...next loss and we're effectively out of the playoffs.
I'm not going to make a prediction as to what I think will happen because it all just depends on which team shows up. If it's the team that played in the first three conference games against SIU, USD, and UNI, then we've got a good shot at winning a close one. If it's the team that was on the field the last quarter against Illinois State or most of the Youngstown State game, then I see us losing by somewhere around 15-20 points. If we want any shot at the playoffs this year, we need to win this one. We can finish anywhere from 7-4 to 4-7 this season, and none of the remaining games are going to be easy.
Side note, NDSU will be rolling out an "alternate" uniform for their Harvest Bowl game with gold jerseys and green helmets (the first time they've had green helmets in at least 50 years). Harvest Bowl is NDSU's annual celebration of the connection between the university and the agriculture industry. So, it's kinda like our Ag Day, except it's a much bigger deal and they've been doing it a lot longer than we have.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
