PLAYOFFS!!!!!!

[letsgonecks]

So this is complete hypothetical and total If's and but's were candied nuts, every day would be Christmas type of shit......BUT, here goes!!!!

Let's start with the biggest IF. Need to beat a very good SDSU team. Though our window to possibly get into the playoffs would be small, it's a window nonetheless and should give even more motivation for the guys. A win would give us sole possession of 3rd place through head to head tie breakers. That being said, we'd be in 3rd place in the toughest FCS Conference. We'd only have 6 wins, but is beneficial to have 6 wins playing the toughest schedule in all of the FCS.

Here are some other things that would help.....again if we win.

We would need EIU to beat EKU this week. The winner here goes to 7-4 and 2nd in the OVC and likely in the playoffs. With SDSU likely in, that would give us 2 wins against playoff teams.

UNI is a little trickier. They win and they're likely in and with the above scenarios, that would give us 3 wins against playoff teams. Don't believe there would be another team out there with 3 wins against playoff teams. On the flip side, a UNI loss would likely eliminate them to open another spot and one less from the conference. This potentially making us the 4th team and keeping votes from having to give 5 spots to the Valley.

Portland State to beat EWU and likely eliminate them.

Montana State to beat Montana and eliminate them.

Cal Poly to knock of North Dakota to eliminate them.

Southern Utah to beat Northern Arizona - NA would be 7-4, but only 6 D1 wins like us and EWU their biggest win.

NDSU, ISUr and CC all winning and staying in the top 5. IL winning and becoming bowl eligible wouldn't hurt either.

I'd put us ahead of any other 6-5 team pleading for a playoff spot. Even conference mates like YSU. If they win this week, yes, they'd be 6-5 with a win over us, but nothing else of significance. If we don't get in, their only chance to have a win against a playoff team would be against NEC Saint Francis, if they beat Duquesne this week. Winner gets the NEC automatic bid.

Maybe this team doesn't even deserve a spot in the playoffs, but hoping for the best and would at least love a winning season.

[sealhall74]

Go Salukis Go! I like our chances better with a Saluki win against UNI.

[Western_101]

nice analysis Letsgonecks!

First off, NEC getting an auto bid seems weak.

No other conference out there beats its conference mates to a bloody pulp like the MVFC. We should be an automatic 3 bid league with a preferred status for two at large berths perennially.

[Western_101]

This whole thread could be a moot point if our boys don't pull out a win this Saturday. I guess in the meantime it passes the time to speculate and theorize.

[ST_Lawson]

nice analysis Letsgonecks!

First off, NEC getting an auto bid seems weak.

No other conference out there beats its conference mates to a bloody pulp like the MVFC. We should be an automatic 3 bid league with a preferred status for two at large berths perennially.

Well, honestly, we're practically at that point anyway. There's a reason half the conference made the playoffs last year and there's a decent chance that our conference could be the first to have a 6-5 team make the playoffs this year.

And yea...we don't win Saturday...the playoff discussion doesn't matter.

[letsgonecks]

So Coastal lost Thursday on a close road game. They'll still be a playoff team but not top 5. Again, still a lose to a playoff team just not a top 5.

ISUr looks to be in control, so they'll move in the top 5. If USD comes back their 6-5 would have to look good to the committee.

Montana State winning against Montana, so keep that going to knock them out and keep a spot open.

EIU tied 0-0.

[ST_Lawson]

Figured I have a bit of time before heading out to the game, so here's the other games going on that could impact what happens to us (if we were to win today). This list is from a contributor over at AnyGivenSaturday, but is essentially the same as the earlier posted list. Teams in bold are who we want to win:

SIU @ UNI - game at 4 PM. Hard to say which would help more, but probably if SIU beats UNI and it comes down to a "which is the last MVFC team in" with both UNI and WIU at 6-5...WIU won head-to-head, so I think we want SIU to win, but it's almost borderline. EDIT - UNI wins...so they're in. Doesn't hurt our chances that much since it means that's another playoff team we beat...at their place.

JMU vs Nova - JMU currently up 24-21 early in the 4th Quarter. Nova would be 6-5. EDIT - JMU wins

SUU vs NAU - game at 4 PM. NAU would be 7-4 with a D2 win. EDIT - Southern Utah wins

UCA vs SHSU - game at 6 PM. SHSU would be 7-4 with a D2 win. EDIT - SHSU up 35-6 at halftime. Doesn't look like we'll get much help there.

Montana St vs Montana - MSU up 7-3 halfway through the 1st quarter. Montana would be 6-5. EDIT - Montana wins

PSU at EWU - Game at 4:05 PM. EWU would be 6-5. EDIT - Portland State wins

Cal Poly vs UND - Game at 8:05 PM. UND would be 6-5

Maine at UNH - Maine down 13-0 at Halftime. UNH would be 6-5. EDIT - UNH wins

EIU vs EKU - Tied up at 0 with under 4 minutes left in 1st quarter. EIU would be 7-4 (but with head-to-head loss to WIU) and EKU would be 6-5. EDIT - EIU wins

ILL @ MN - MN up 24-20 early in the 4th Quarter. Less important, but could help SOS argument a little if Illinois gets to 6 wins and is bowl eligible. EDIT - Minnesota wins

I'll update when I can, but it'll probably be after the game (at which point, it may or may not matter at all).

EDIT - so, about an even split on things going our way with the other games...we'll see. I'm thinking it's pretty unlikely we'll get selected. Then again, we're tied for third in the conference (at 5-3) with SDSU and UNI, and we won the tiebreakers over them both. Plus we're 6-5 against the toughest schedule in the FCS. Couple of "if only"s...if only we'd finished the last drive at Coastal and maybe won that...if only we'd actually tried against Youngstown State (we play like we did the last couple of weeks or like we did against EIU, USD, or UNI...we'd toast YSU). But, we didn't...we lost. Now we're 6-5 (which I'm not unhappy about, honestly) and likely just outside looking in on the playoffs.

[letsgonecks]

EIU wins and pretty sure to be in.

EWU loses and is out.

Montana wins and should be in.

[Western_101]

I know where EIU would come in the MVFC 10th place (right ahead of MSU) yet they are play off bound with weak as water schedule/conference.

Illinois *sigh* will the day ever arrive where Illinois football is not an embarrassment. People find it odd that I'm so passionate for the MVFC......why shouldn't I be? look where I live what regional FBS team am I supposed to get behind?

[letsgonecks]

Southern Utah has big second half to beat Northern Arizona. NAU scores under 2 minutes to get down 8. Get onside, but no miracle.

NAU finishes 7-4, but again only 6 D1 wins and best against EWU who won't make the playoffs.