WIU @ Dayton (11/28/2015) - Playoffs Round 1

[ST_Lawson]

AT
IT'S PLAYOFF TIME!!!


Date/Time: 11/28 at 11 AM Central (game is played at noon local time, Eastern time zone)
Weather Forecast: 47 degrees and 50% chance of rain w/ ~10 mph wind (as of 11/27). Decent chance of rain until about 5-6 PM.
TV: Game will be on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Opponent's Message Board Game Discussion

Dayton's Record:
Dayton is 10-1 overall, 7-1 in the Pioneer League. OOC they have wins over NEC's Robert Morris (27-24) and Duquesne (24-13), as well as new Big South member (and first year football team) Kennesaw State (31-27). In the Pioneer League, they have wins over Stetson (27-14), San Diego (13-12), Valparaiso (44-14), Butler (27-24), Jacksonville (31-14), Morehead State (20-15), and Marist (28-21). They finished out the season with a loss at snow-covered Drake (27-17).

The History:
Western and Dayton have never played each other before. Western does have a 12-5 overall record against the Pioneer League, although all of the losses were to Drake, and all were 1982 or before. Since 2000, we have gone 7-0 against the Pioneer League teams. Dayton has a 15-6-1 overall record against current MVFC teams, having played 7 of them. Most games were against Youngstown State, where they actually hold a 9-1 record against them, although again, all wins were prior to 1978. Since 1978 (that's when Div. I split to I-AA and I-AA and around when many teams moved up from Div. II to I-AA), Dayton is 0-2 against MVFC teams.
Dayton has never made the playoffs before, mostly because the Pioneer League didn't receive an auto-bid to the playoffs until 2013. Going back to 2000, Dayton has been the Pioneer League champion or co-champion 6 times.
Western has made the playoffs 9 times (before this year) and hold a 5-4 record in first-round playoff games.

Key Players:
QB Alex Jeske - 175.27 average yards per game, 10 TDs and 7 INTs, 120.65 passing efficiency on 300 attempts
RB Tucker Yinger - 652 total yards (59.27 per game, 6.2 per carry), 3 TDs in 11 games
RB Jack Adams - 320 total yards (40 per game, 4.3 per carry), 6 TDs in 8 games
WR Cory Stuart - 502 total yards (45.64 per game, 10.46 per catch), 2 TDs in 11 games
WR Jack Euritt - 444 total yards (40.36 per game, 13.88 per catch), 1 TD in 11 games
SLT (specifically listed as a slot receiver) - 372 total yards (37.2 per game, 7.75 per catch), 3 TDs in 10 games
LB Christopher Beaschler - 98 tackles (53 solo), 18 for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble
LB Jack Crain - 94 tackles (37 solo), 12 for loss
CB Cameron Stubbs - 55 tackles (39 solo), 8.5 for loss, 6 INTs, 1 forced fumble, ranked 5th in the FCS for INTs per game.
CB Christian Searles - 52 tackles (38 solo), 1 for loss, 4 INTs for 124 yards including one for 71 yards and one for 50 yards that ended with a TD. Also is ranked 7th in the FCS for Punt Return yardage.
Also, this guy won't be playing, but I wanted to mention (because he deserves mentioning):
RB Connor Kacsor - 606 total yards (151.5 per game, 4.3 per rush), 6 TDs in only 4 games. Suffered a season-ending (really, football career-ending, since he's a Senior) torn ACL in practice a couple of days before their 5th game of the season. Kascor is the all-time leading rusher for Dayton and put up 1547 yards and 17 TDs last season, was on the Walter Payton Award watch list and PFL Offensive Player of the Year. They're still a good team without him, but they had a significantly more potent offense when he was playing.

Stat Analysis:
Full Stat Comparison
Dayton is in the top 10 in the FCS in: 4th Down Conversion % (7th), Blocked Kicks (4th), Passes Intercepted (2nd), and Turnover Margin (3rd).
They have a low raking in: Passing Yards per Completion (104th), Sacks Allowed (104th), and Blocked Punts Allowed (90th).

So, we're now into the playoffs, where you've got two groups of teams...good teams and great teams. You won't find any "cupcakes" here. That being said, I do like our chances against Dayton. We don't have any direct common opponents, but we do have Robert Morris...a team that Dayton played and that Youngstown State and South Dakota State both played. Dayton beat Robert Morris 27-24, Youngstown State beat RMU 21-14, and SDSU beat RMU 34-10. Obviously you can't really take too much from transitive connections like that (ie...we beat SDSU who beat ISUr who beat us....and we beat USD who beat NDSU who destroyed us), but I think that you can get some gauge of where we are at in comparison to Dayton. In the Sagarin Rankings (all Div I), Western is 116th, Dayton is 208. Massey has us as 20th in the FCS, Dayton at 36th. The AGS poll has us at 25th, Dayton at 37th. Crowd noise shouldn't be an issue...Dayton has averaged fewer fans than we have (4,774 vs 3,058) although they did actually outdraw us in their last two home games vs our last two home games (although weather played a huge part in our lack of attendance at those games). Dayton obviously knows how to win games, but I don't think they've played anyone as tough as Western this season. My prediction is that we come away with about a two TD (14 point) victory and are headed back to Normal the next weekend.

[BobLovely]

Excellent preview Scott! I agree with your analysis.

Prediction:

Western Illinois [thinkpurple]34[/thinkpurple] Dayton 14

Then, it will be on to Illinois State...

Bob

[letsgonecks]

We play well and we win. That goes for most games, but here we play well and they play well, we win. Nothing against them and by no means is this a gimme, but should be won.

I am concerned about them blocking kicks. We'd get blocked by the worst team in the nation in blocked kicks and will have our hands full against #4.

WIU 35 - UD - 17

[wiu712]

Ticket Info for the game at Dayton:

Tickets are $10 for adults and $5 for college-age students and younger. All seating is general admission.

Fans can purchase online or by calling (937) 229-4433.

The Dayton ticket office will be closed on Thanksgiving.

[WIU0812]

No team shall be taken lightly and I do not think that we will sleep on this one. They are obviously 10-1 even if it should be a win, we will want our A game the entire time or it will be closer than expected. I will go with a 14 point win, but that is if we keep pressure on them entire game.

WIU - 35
UD - 21

[Neckfansince71]

I am not in the habit of forecasting scores, but I think if you take a look at our D-line and O-line compared to Dayton's, man to man we have bigger and quicker athletes. That usually equates to a W in most cases and I think the Necks will be victorious and will move on for a game against #2 seed ISU. Nikko has been difficult to bring down and I also think that will be the case on Saturday. Just really pleased with this invite to the FCS. I have listened to Coach N's presser a couple of times and he continues to talk about how young this team is. This is not a one year deal!!!! His 3 year record so far is 4-7, 5-6, and 6-5 with FCS bid. Not really unexpected if you take a look at what he has been able to do, especially at Duluth! We are definitely getting plenty of love from NDst. fans on AGS too. I have heard many many times how important the "strength of schedule" is, and WIU's selection definitely makes a statement in this regard. I am also going to say that it seems in the future, WIU qb's are going to have to be both pass and run orientated to take the field for Coach N. jc

ps. Scott, wonderful stat comparison and opening page as always. You have a great way to get things started each and every time!

[Leatherneck177]

Great post on breaking it down ST. I think Western dominates this game and physically imposes their will. Dayton is missing their all time leading rusher, so I expect their offense to struggle.

Western 37
Dayton 10

[W1U]

Great preview.

I think this is the best possible draw we could get given a 6-5 record. That being said, our special teams play and knack for untimely penalties worry me.

I think Western's ground game and defense win this one. Something like a 10 or 13 point spread soumds right.

[wiu712]

I have listened to Coach N's presser a couple of times and he continues to talk about how young this team is. This is not a one year deal!!!! His 3 year record so far is 4-7, 5-6, and 6-5 with FCS bid.

We played 12 games in 2013 and 2014. So the three year record is:
2013: 4-8
2014: 5-7
2015: 6-5

[ST_Lawson]

That high blocked kicks ranking (4th in FCS) for Dayton kinda gives me pause. It's no secret we haven't been great at blocking the defenders on kicks (119th in FCS), with another one nearly costing us the game last weekend. They seem to be pretty good at knocking down kicks...I don't know if they've got a fast guy or two around the edges or a couple of tall "middle" defenders who can really get up and knock down anything that's even remotely low. Special teams have been our weakness and we need to play better at that aspect...otherwise we could be looking at a closer game that most of us expect.

Fairly off-topic, but I actually have quite a few connections to the Dayton area. My brother-in-law (who grew up in Macomb and who's dad works at Western) was stationed at Wright-Patterson AFB for a decent number of years. My uncle lives about 5 miles from the stadium where our game is going to be held. And a member of my (very) extended family is actually on the Dayton University Women's Rowing team.